---
title: "Operation #1 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation #1 ($0.75) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 72.77% from 34 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation #1](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation #1

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1?window=all)

Price · $0.75

Advertised RTP · 72.77% · EV $0.55 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation1?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 9,876 | $29.76 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 9,860 | $28.58 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 9,612 | $20.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,589 | $19.76 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,682 | $12.96 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 8,349 | $11.87 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 6,463 | $8.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,489 | $6.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 4,405 | $6.37 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 4,149 | $6.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 2,262 | $4.56 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,506 | $3.85 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 1,207 | $3.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 1,084 | $3.39 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 782 | $3.00 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 192 | $1.79 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $1.71 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 170 | $1.71 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $1.69 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.22 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.21 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 61 | $1.15 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $1.10 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.95 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.87 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.76 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.58 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.44 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.39 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $0.37 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.36 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $0.32 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.29 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=operation1)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.75 | 72.77% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.75 | 72.54% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.75 | 72.38% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.75 | 72.41% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.75 | 72.66% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.75 | 73.02% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.75 | 72.95% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.75 | 72.94% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.75 | 72.98% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.75 | 73.07% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.75 | 73.54% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.75 | 73.51% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.75 | 73.48% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.75 | 73.47% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.75 | 73.49% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.75 | 73.48% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.75 | 73.49% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.75 | 73.44% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.75 | 73.50% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.75 | 73.51% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.75 | 73.39% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.75 | 73.36% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.75 | 73.52% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.75 | 73.81% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.75 | 73.89% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.75 | 73.73% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.75 | 73.55% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.75 | 73.63% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.75 | 73.56% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.75 | 73.61% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% restricted 4.7% pink 0.3% classified 0.1% #d32ee6 0.0% Mythical 15.3% Legendary 0.1% #d32ce6 1.7% #8847ff 15.5% violet 3.2% Restricted 17.5% #4b69ff 8.6% milspec 21.4% mil spec 11.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 72.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $72.77 on average: an expected loss of $27.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt