---
title: "Operation #3 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation #3 ($0.95) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.00% from 32 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation #3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation #3

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3?window=all)

Price · $0.95

Advertised RTP · 73.00% · EV $0.69 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operation3?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 9,684 | $36.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 9,573 | $32.87 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,454 | $30.13 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 8,982 | $24.07 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,131 | $19.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 7,250 | $16.07 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 5,256 | $12.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 5,011 | $11.63 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,741 | $11.22 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 4,185 | $10.40 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,739 | $9.77 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 2,384 | $7.85 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,474 | $6.42 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 472 | $4.17 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 416 | $3.98 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $3.41 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $2.79 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $1.99 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.41 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $1.15 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.13 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.97 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.85 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.78 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.59 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.53 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.38 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.36 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.36 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.35 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.35 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.33 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=operation3)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.95 | 73.00% | 32 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.95 | 72.66% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.95 | 72.66% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.95 | 72.94% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.95 | 73.43% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.95 | 73.38% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.95 | 73.41% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.95 | 73.38% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.95 | 73.51% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.95 | 73.95% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.95 | 73.87% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.95 | 73.85% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.95 | 73.79% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.95 | 73.90% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.95 | 73.88% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.95 | 73.83% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.95 | 73.78% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.95 | 73.83% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.95 | 73.81% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.95 | 73.92% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.95 | 73.87% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.95 | 73.89% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.95 | 74.20% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.95 | 74.27% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.95 | 74.10% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.95 | 73.88% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.95 | 73.88% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.95 | 73.96% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.95 | 74.00% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.95 | 73.95% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.5% Legendary 0.3% mil spec 24.4% pink 4.6% restricted 13.5% #d32ce6 0.2% #8847ff 21.9% violet 26.0% Restricted 8.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.00 on average: an expected loss of $27.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt