---
title: "Operation Broken Fang Case on csgo.net: odds & RTP"
description: "Operation Broken Fang Case ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.21% from 9 items with odds, observed 80.74% over 6,380 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Broken Fang Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Broken Fang Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase?window=all)

Price · $6.79

Advertised RTP · 76.21% · EV $5.17 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.74% · 6,380 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 80.74% ±2.15 6,380 openings

30 days · 80.74% ±2.15 6,380 openings

since tracking started · 80.74% ±2.15 6,380 openings

-0.5% 86.3% 173.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.26% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.59% – 82.89%, 6,380 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase?window=24h) | 2 | 57.81% ±114.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase?window=7d) | 6,380 | 80.74% ±2.15 | +3.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase) | 6,380 | 80.74% ±2.15 | +3.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationbrokenfangcase?window=all) | 6,380 | 80.74% ±2.15 | +3.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,380 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,656 | $160 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $36.68 | 4.2% | 114 | 38.0 | 3.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $19.46 | 12.2% | 88 | 207.3 | 0.42× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $19.22 | 12.5% | 203 | 213.9 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $17.55 | 14.2% | 242 | 266.7 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 24.6% | $4.79 | 22.7% | 1,997 | 1566.7 | 1.27× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) | 23.5% | $3.25 | 14.8% | 1,623 | 1500.3 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 20.6% | $2.47 | 9.8% | 1,655 | 1312.8 | 1.26× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-well-worn) | 20.0% | $2.35 | 9.1% | 0 | 1273.2 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=operationbrokenfangcase)

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) [Desperado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Desperado) $6.79 $3.25 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $6.79 $4.60 0.68x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [Don't Peek](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don't%20Peek) $6.79 $4.58 0.67x 2026-11-10 10:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $6.79 $17.47 2.57x 2026-11-10 10:05 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) [mAge](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/mAge) $6.79 $4.59 0.68x 2026-11-10 06:07 UTC

[SSG 08 | Parallax (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-field-tested) [robert.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/robert.) $6.79 $3.03 0.45x 2026-11-09 20:28 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) [mAge](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/mAge) $6.79 $3.46 0.51x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) [sANYAhOIOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sANYAhOIOD) $6.79 $2.57 0.38x 2026-11-07 13:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) [sANYAhOIOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sANYAhOIOD) $6.79 $3.61 0.53x 2026-11-07 13:34 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) [sANYAhOIOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sANYAhOIOD) $6.79 $3.61 0.53x 2026-11-07 13:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.21% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.02% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.86% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.86% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.10% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.47% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.45% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.50% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.57% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.96% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.04% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.98% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.95% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.42% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.43% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.35% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 8 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Ancient 0.6% Legendary 3.2% classified 7.5% restricted 24.6% violet 43.5% #8847ff 20.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.21 on average: an expected loss of $23.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt