---
title: "Operation Riptide Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Operation Riptide Case ($2.69) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.49% from 16 items with odds, observed 98.73% over 5,981 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Riptide Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Riptide Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 76.49% · EV $2.06 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.73% · 5,981 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 104.87% ±10.37 245 openings

7 days · 98.69% ±2.07 5,947 openings

30 days · 98.73% ±2.06 5,981 openings

since tracking started · 98.73% ±2.06 5,981 openings

76.0% 96.0% 116.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.53% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.66% – 100.79%, 5,981 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase?window=24h) | 245 | 104.87% ±10.4 | +5.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase?window=7d) | 5,947 | 98.69% ±2.07 | +20.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase) | 5,981 | 98.73% ±2.06 | +20.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/operationriptidecase?window=all) | 5,981 | 98.73% ±2.06 | +20.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,981 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 6,733 | $65.68 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 6,490 | $63.34 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 411 | $17.70 | 2.1% | 26 | 14.5 | 1.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 319 | $16.13 | 2.5% | 46 | 18.8 | 2.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 304 | $15.87 | 2.5% | 37 | 19.6 | 1.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.20 | 12.9% | 311 | 305.1 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.78 | 13.8% | 471 | 355.8 | 1.32× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 11.1% | $2.95 | 15.9% | 764 | 661.4 | 1.16× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 11.1% | $2.93 | 15.8% | 847 | 665.6 | 1.27× |
| [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-field-tested) | 13.2% | $1.75 | 11.2% | 1,134 | 787.1 | 1.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-field-tested) | 12.5% | $1.40 | 8.5% | 255 | 746.3 | 0.34× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.82 | 3.6% | 424 | 543.7 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.76 | 3.2% | 368 | 513.3 | 0.72× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.66 | 2.4% | 169 | 455.4 | 0.37× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.65 | 2.4% | 333 | 451.2 | 0.74× |
| [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.63 | 2.3% | 340 | 441.5 | 0.77× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=operationriptidecase)

[FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $2.89 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $5.19 1.93x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Lumen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-lumen-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $0.66 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[XM1014 | Watchdog (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $1.34 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Tread (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $0.76 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $2.89 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $2.89 1.07x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Tread (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $2.69 $0.76 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Tread (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-field-tested) [rybel1990@@](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rybel1990%40%40) $2.69 $0.76 0.28x 2026-11-11 08:15 UTC

[AUG | Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $2.69 $0.65 0.24x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.69 | 76.49% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.39% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.37% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.69 | 76.61% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.69 | 76.91% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.93% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.69 | 76.91% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.03% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.69 | 77.10% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.69 | 77.59% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.69 | 77.49% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.51% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.69 | 77.58% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.56% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.52% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.47% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.50% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.69 | 77.39% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.57% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.69 | 77.89% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.69 | 77.93% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.82% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.53% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.69% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.69 | 77.63% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.69 | 77.63% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.69 | 77.59% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.2% #d32ee6 0.3% pink 0.3% restricted 5.1% violet 5.9% #8847ff 35.3% blue 12.5% mil spec 9.1% Mil Spec 16.0% #4b69ff 15.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.49 on average: an expected loss of $23.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt