---
title: "Оранжевая коллекция case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Оранжевая коллекция ($0.13) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 60.53% from 35 items with odds, observed 75.13% over 7,822 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Оранжевая коллекция](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Оранжевая коллекция

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection?window=all)

Price · $0.13

Advertised RTP · 60.53% · EV $0.08 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.13% · 7,822 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 75.89% ±3.04 1,220 openings

7 days · 75.21% ±1.27 6,471 openings

30 days · 75.13% ±1.17 7,822 openings

since tracking started · 75.13% ±1.17 7,822 openings

60.0% 69.8% 79.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 61.28% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (73.96% – 76.30%, 7,822 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection?window=24h) | 1,220 | 75.89% ±3.04 | +9.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection?window=7d) | 6,471 | 75.21% ±1.27 | +21.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection) | 7,822 | 75.13% ±1.17 | +23.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/orangecollection?window=all) | 7,822 | 75.13% ±1.17 | +23.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,835 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 191,142 | $8.54 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 168,760 | $5.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 164,703 | $5.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 154,866 | $4.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 122,675 | $3.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,159 | $2.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 41,884 | $1.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 11,278 | $1.20 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 8,900 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 7,206 | $1.02 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.76× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 5,231 | $0.91 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-urban-sovereign-field-tested) | 1 in 4,033 | $0.84 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.06× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 3,980 | $0.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 1,555 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 1,275 | $0.56 | 0.6% | 24 | 6.1 | 3.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 1 in 1,155 | $0.54 | 0.6% | 17 | 6.8 | 2.51× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 638 | $0.44 | 0.9% | 19 | 12.3 | 1.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 318 | $0.35 | 1.4% | 65 | 24.6 | 2.64× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 314 | $0.35 | 1.4% | 18 | 24.9 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $0.30 | 1.8% | 38 | 36.1 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $0.27 | 2.1% | 33 | 47.7 | 0.69× |
| [Charm \| Lil' No. 2 charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-no-2) | 1 in 155 | $0.27 | 2.2% | 54 | 50.5 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-cracked-opal-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $0.25 | 2.5% | 34 | 62.3 | 0.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.18 | 4.2% | 172 | 144.5 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.13 | 6.0% | 433 | 275.9 | 1.57× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.10 | 7.6% | 378 | 471.6 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.08 | 8.1% | 637 | 619.9 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 8.1% | 1,056 | 696.6 | 1.52× |
| [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 8.2% | 701 | 707.9 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 8.1% | 1,043 | 706.8 | 1.48× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 8.2% | 772 | 732.2 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 8.1% | 1,114 | 744.1 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 10.7% | $0.06 | 7.5% | 0 | 839.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $0.05 | 7.2% | 0 | 851.8 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.03 | 3.3% | 0 | 759.8 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SSG 08 | Big Iron weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron) [L1nux](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/L1nux) $0.13 $7.73 59.46x 2026-11-02 21:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=orangecollection)

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $0.13 $0.13 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $0.13 $0.13 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [i sniff my farts](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/i%20sniff%20my%20farts) $0.13 $0.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) [i sniff my farts](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/i%20sniff%20my%20farts) $0.13 $0.11 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [Marinette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Marinette) $0.13 $0.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) [Marinette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Marinette) $0.13 $0.11 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) [Marinette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Marinette) $0.13 $0.11 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) [Đě₵₭Ø](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%C4%90%C4%9B%E2%82%B5%E2%82%AD%C3%98) $0.13 $0.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[MP9 | Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) [18+](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/18%2B) $0.13 $0.11 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [18+](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/18%2B) $0.13 $0.18 1.37x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 60.53% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 60.45% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 60.39% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 60.70% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 61.04% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 60.96% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 61.02% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 60.90% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 60.94% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 61.36% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 61.42% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 61.45% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 61.45% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 61.43% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 61.40% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.56% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.42% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.43% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.45% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.46% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 61.36% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.37% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 61.87% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 61.71% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.63% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.33% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.35% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 61.46% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 61.49% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.13 | 61.53% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #d32ee6 0.0% pink 0.0% classified 0.0% violet 0.5% Mythical 0.2% restricted 0.1% #8847ff 0.1% mil spec 0.3% #4b69ff 17.2% milspec 27.1% common 10.9% Rare 12.4% Uncommon 10.7% industrial 20.6% best hit $7.73 (59.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 60.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $60.53 on average: an expected loss of $39.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt