---
title: "OverDrive case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "OverDrive ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.91% from 31 items with odds, observed 79.50% over 1,229 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [OverDrive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · OverDrive

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive?window=all)

Price · $3.39

Advertised RTP · 75.91% · EV $2.57 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.50% · 1,229 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 67.31% ±16.66 121 openings

7 days · 80.42% ±5.57 1,061 openings

30 days · 79.50% ±5.16 1,229 openings

since tracking started · 79.50% ±5.16 1,229 openings

50.0% 68.3% 86.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive?window=24h) | 121 | 67.31% ±16.7 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive?window=7d) | 1,061 | 80.42% ±5.57 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive) | 1,229 | 79.50% ±5.16 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overdrive?window=all) | 1,229 | 79.50% ±5.16 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,230 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,831 | $142 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 9,527 | $99.80 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 9,515 | $98.94 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,400 | $91.77 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 8,967 | $75.38 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,481 | $52.68 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 7,263 | $50.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,628 | $39.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 4,277 | $33.19 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Charm \| Quick Silver charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-quick-silver) | 1 in 3,896 | $31.47 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,215 | $23.98 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,682 | $21.36 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 671 | $15.01 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 386 | $12.25 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 362 | $11.97 | 1.3% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $11.22 | 1.4% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.25× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $9.52 | 1.9% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $6.49 | 3.6% | 23 | 17.3 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $6.32 | 3.7% | 0 | 18.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $4.55 | 5.7% | 50 | 39.5 | 1.26× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.23 | 6.1% | 48 | 45.9 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.07 | 6.4% | 16 | 49.6 | 0.32× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.61 | 7.1% | 56 | 62.1 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.36 | 7.5% | 79 | 70.2 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.66 | 8.2% | 107 | 98.0 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $2.16 | 8.2% | 156 | 120.4 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 10.3% | $2.02 | 8.1% | 71 | 126.4 | 0.56× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $1.63 | 7.2% | 159 | 139.4 | 1.14× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 11.5% | $1.51 | 6.7% | 150 | 141.4 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 11.4% | $1.20 | 5.3% | 75 | 140.2 | 0.53× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 11.3% | $1.16 | 5.1% | 124 | 139.2 | 0.89× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=overdrive)

[Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $3.39 $1.20 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $3.39 $1.77 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $3.39 $1.77 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $3.39 $2.69 0.79x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $3.39 $2.69 0.79x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [❤𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓵𝔂❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%A4%F0%9D%93%97%F0%9D%93%B8%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%94%82%E2%9D%A4) $3.39 $1.50 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [ARD.RP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ARD.RP) $3.39 $1.50 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) [ARD.RP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ARD.RP) $3.39 $1.77 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [ARD.RP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ARD.RP) $3.39 $1.17 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) [aura farmer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aura%20farmer) $3.39 $1.20 0.35x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 75.91% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.78% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.82% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.12% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.43% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.43% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.36% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.46% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.55% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.98% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.92% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.01% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.32% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.34% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.31% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.05% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.08% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% blue 0.0% red 0.0% classified 8.0% #d32ee6 0.3% restricted 28.3% pink 8.6% mil spec 4.0% violet 8.0% #8847ff 21.1% Rare 10.3% Mythical 11.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.91 on average: an expected loss of $24.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt