---
title: "Overpass case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Overpass ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.17% from 15 items with odds, observed 195.75% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Overpass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Overpass

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass?window=all)

Price · $3.39

Advertised RTP · 76.17% · EV $2.58 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 195.75% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

25.5% 214.8% 404.0%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass?window=24h) | 1 | 214.75% ±188.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass?window=7d) | 5 | 195.75% ±85.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass) | 5 | 195.75% ±85.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpass?window=all) | 5 | 195.75% ±85.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 15,512 | $99.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 416 | $28.52 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $22.01 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $11.50 | 12.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $7.27 | 21.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) | 12.9% | $5.18 | 25.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) | 15.6% | $1.54 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-field-tested) | 14.6% | $1.38 | 7.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 13.5% | $1.24 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 13.4% | $1.22 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP9 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.57 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=overpass)

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [Tokyo Ghilliaka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tokyo%20Ghilliaka) $3.39 $7.28 2.15x 2026-11-11 09:53 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-minimal-wear) [WW](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/WW) $3.39 $8.26 2.44x 2026-11-07 03:04 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-minimal-wear) [WW](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/WW) $3.39 $8.34 2.46x 2026-11-07 03:02 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) [WW](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/WW) $3.39 $4.65 1.37x 2026-11-07 03:01 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-field-tested) [♿6996♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%99%BF6996%E2%99%BF) $3.39 $4.65 1.37x 2026-11-04 18:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.17% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 76.00% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.81% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.83% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.10% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.43% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.49% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.46% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.51% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.54% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.93% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.03% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.98% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.01% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.84% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.39% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.32% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.28% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 76.98% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.07% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.10% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.03% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.0% restricted 0.7% mil spec 2.9% blue 7.7% #4b69ff 12.9% Industrial Grade 30.2% blueLight 13.5% #87c7ff 13.4% Consumer Grade 12.6% consumer 6.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.17 on average: an expected loss of $23.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt