---
title: "CS2 Overpass case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Overpass ($0.21) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.90% from 36 items with odds, observed 100.48% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [CS2 Overpass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · CS2 Overpass

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2?window=all)

Price · $0.21

Advertised RTP · 73.90% · EV $0.16 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.48% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 151.0% 302.5%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2?window=24h) | 1 | 24.29% ±277.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2?window=7d) | 2 | 100.48% ±194.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2) | 2 | 100.48% ±194.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/overpasscs2?window=all) | 2 | 100.48% ±194.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,458 | $61.12 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 199,171 | $53.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 195,987 | $31.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 195,699 | $30.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 190,954 | $23.58 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 190,858 | $23.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 145,178 | $11.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 104,069 | $8.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61,138 | $6.49 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60,331 | $6.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 14,192 | $3.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 13,355 | $3.53 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 12,625 | $3.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 10,245 | $3.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 9,070 | $3.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 5,102 | $2.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 2,677 | $2.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 609 | $1.22 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 489 | $1.13 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 451 | $1.10 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 369 | $1.02 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $0.85 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $0.70 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $0.66 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.48 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.41 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.38 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.36 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.33 | 10.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) | 12.7% | $0.17 | 14.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 13.5% | $0.07 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-field-tested) | 13.2% | $0.07 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.05 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.05 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.04 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Hieroglyph (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-hieroglyph-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.04 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=overpasscs2)

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-field-tested) [KramplaR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/KramplaR) $0.21 $0.05 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:06 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-field-tested) [kenT777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kenT777) $0.21 $0.37 1.77x 2026-11-09 09:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 73.90% | 36 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 73.76% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 73.68% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 74.00% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 74.37% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.39% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.41% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.34% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.43% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 74.93% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 74.88% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 74.85% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.94% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.89% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.92% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.91% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.86% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.85% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.88% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.87% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.76% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.83% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 75.28% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 75.28% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.21% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.86% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.00% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.84% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 74.97% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.21 | 74.96% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% pink 0.0% classified 0.0% violet 8.2% restricted 2.5% Legendary 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% Rare 1.0% Mythical 4.0% mil spec 1.1% #8847ff 4.5% milspec 36.9% industrial 23.7% #87c7ff 9.4% consumer 8.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.90 on average: an expected loss of $26.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt