---
title: "P250 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "P250 ($1.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 66.18% from 40 items with odds, observed 63.47% over 660 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [P250](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · P250

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250?window=all)

Price · $1.09

Advertised RTP · 66.18% · EV $0.72 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 63.47% · 660 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 57 openings · below min

7 days · 63.40% ±5.29 579 openings

30 days · 63.47% ±4.97 660 openings

since tracking started · 63.47% ±4.97 660 openings

37.5% 54.5% 71.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250?window=24h) | 57 | 54.37% ±16.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250?window=7d) | 579 | 63.40% ±5.29 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250) | 660 | 63.47% ±4.97 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/p250?window=all) | 660 | 63.47% ±4.97 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 660 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195,438 | $96.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 139,160 | $36.51 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 139,094 | $36.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138,361 | $36.28 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 115,764 | $30.80 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78,732 | $23.99 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 47,807 | $18.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) | 1 in 40,957 | $17.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,710 | $15.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28,855 | $15.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,695 | $14.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15,593 | $12.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 11,260 | $10.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 9,664 | $10.23 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 8,308 | $9.71 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 3,583 | $7.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,713 | $5.64 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 1,481 | $5.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 721 | $4.19 | 0.8% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 635 | $4.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Facets (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-facets-field-tested) | 1 in 498 | $3.68 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 393 | $3.39 | 1.2% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.38× |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 338 | $3.22 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 174 | $2.54 | 2.0% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× |
| [P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $2.39 | 2.2% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.56× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 140 | $2.34 | 2.3% | 14 | 4.7 | 2.98× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $1.94 | 3.2% | 4 | 7.8 | 0.52× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $1.71 | 3.8% | 0 | 10.6 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bone-mask-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $1.66 | 4.0% | 0 | 11.5 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-gunsmoke-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.48 | 4.7% | 0 | 15.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.32 | 5.4% | 20 | 19.6 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.11 | 6.6% | 5 | 28.4 | 0.18× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.84 | 8.1% | 0 | 45.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.79 | 8.3% | 4 | 49.9 | 0.08× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.78 | 8.3% | 61 | 50.9 | 1.20× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) | 11.4% | $0.51 | 8.1% | 86 | 75.4 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-minimal-wear) | 12.3% | $0.38 | 6.5% | 54 | 81.0 | 0.67× |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) | 12.3% | $0.37 | 6.3% | 15 | 81.0 | 0.19× |
| [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 12.3% | $0.37 | 6.3% | 82 | 80.9 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 12.2% | $0.36 | 6.1% | 106 | 80.8 | 1.31× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=p250)

[P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) [clark](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/clark) $1.09 $0.36 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-field-tested) [clark](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/clark) $1.09 $0.39 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [clark](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/clark) $1.09 $0.82 0.75x 2026-11-11 16:12 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [clark](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/clark) $1.09 $0.51 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:11 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [I want pizza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/I%20want%20pizza) $1.09 $0.51 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC

[P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) [I want pizza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/I%20want%20pizza) $1.09 $0.36 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) [Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Krab) $1.09 $0.82 0.75x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-minimal-wear) [Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Krab) $1.09 $0.37 0.34x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) [Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Krab) $1.09 $0.51 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

[P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) [Krab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Krab) $1.09 $0.36 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.09 | 66.18% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 66.03% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 65.79% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 65.87% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 66.07% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 66.44% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.41% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.34% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.39% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 66.44% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 66.99% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 66.89% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 66.88% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 66.85% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 66.86% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 66.84% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.83% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.83% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.74% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.82% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 66.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.86% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 67.12% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 67.09% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 67.11% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.92% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.89% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.09 | 66.95% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 66.96% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 12.3% covert 0.0% Mythical 3.7% pink 0.3% #8847ff 12.2% blue 0.0% classified 1.2% mil spec 0.9% violet 8.4% restricted 7.6% Rare 16.6% industrial 2.7% milspec 0.0% consumer 1.8% #d32ce6 0.1% Uncommon 1.6% gray 6.9% Restricted 23.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 66.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $66.18 on average: an expected loss of $33.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt