---
title: "PEAK case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PEAK ($0.15) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.83% from 28 items with odds, observed 89.47% over 3,673 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [PEAK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · PEAK

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak?window=all)

Price · $0.15

Advertised RTP · 75.83% · EV $0.11 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.47% · 3,673 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 69 openings · below min

7 days · 88.64% ±2.97 2,215 openings

30 days · 89.47% ±2.27 3,673 openings

since tracking started · 89.47% ±2.27 3,673 openings

74.0% 98.0% 122.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.21% – 91.74%, 3,673 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak?window=24h) | 69 | 103.50% ±18.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak?window=7d) | 2,215 | 88.64% ±2.97 | +9.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak) | 3,673 | 89.47% ±2.27 | +12.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/peak?window=all) | 3,673 | 89.47% ±2.27 | +12.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,687 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 112,369 | $5.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 93,044 | $4.55 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 37,029 | $2.91 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) | 1 in 7,539 | $1.62 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 1 in 3,323 | $1.22 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.60× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 2,800 | $1.15 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 2,699 | $1.13 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,375 | $0.90 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [Charm \| Pocket Pop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-pop) | 1 in 957 | $0.80 | 0.7% | 9 | 3.9 | 2.34× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 447 | $0.61 | 1.2% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 303 | $0.54 | 1.6% | 16 | 12.2 | 1.32× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $0.48 | 1.9% | 31 | 17.0 | 1.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 178 | $0.44 | 2.2% | 52 | 20.7 | 2.51× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $0.44 | 2.2% | 17 | 21.0 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 139 | $0.41 | 2.6% | 53 | 26.6 | 1.99× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.39 | 2.8% | 41 | 30.6 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $0.37 | 3.0% | 30 | 33.3 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.36 | 3.2% | 29 | 36.7 | 0.79× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $0.36 | 3.2% | 84 | 37.8 | 2.22× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $0.35 | 3.3% | 8 | 40.3 | 0.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $0.26 | 5.3% | 52 | 85.2 | 0.61× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.25 | 5.7% | 147 | 96.5 | 1.52× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.17 | 8.9% | 196 | 218.2 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 13.7% | $0.10 | 11.7% | 490 | 506.0 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.07 | 10.6% | 83 | 607.2 | 0.14× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 16.7% | $0.07 | 10.4% | 250 | 614.3 | 0.41× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-field-tested) | 17.1% | $0.06 | 9.2% | 641 | 632.2 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-field-tested) | 17.1% | $0.06 | 8.3% | 0 | 631.9 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=peak)

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [1shot ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/1shot%20%E2%99%9B) $0.15 $0.36 2.39x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-field-tested) [Lucifer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Lucifer) $0.15 $0.06 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) [Lucifer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Lucifer) $0.15 $0.07 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) [Lucifer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Lucifer) $0.15 $0.07 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) [Lucifer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Lucifer) $0.15 $0.17 1.17x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) [Lucifer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Lucifer) $0.15 $0.17 1.17x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-field-tested) [Slinkeeee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Slinkeeee) $0.15 $0.06 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:11 UTC

[MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-field-tested) [bololo ldp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bololo%20ldp) $0.15 $0.06 0.41x 2026-11-11 01:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [bololo ldp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bololo%20ldp) $0.15 $0.07 0.49x 2026-11-11 01:53 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-well-worn) [GHOST👻](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/GHOST%F0%9F%91%BB) $0.15 $0.34 2.29x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.15 | 75.83% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.15 | 75.67% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.15 | 75.70% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.15 | 76.05% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.15 | 76.35% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.15 | 76.35% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.15 | 76.32% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.15 | 76.33% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.15 | 76.40% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.15 | 76.87% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.15 | 76.63% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.15 | 76.67% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.15 | 76.77% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.15 | 76.75% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.15 | 76.77% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.15 | 76.92% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.15 | 76.90% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.15 | 76.79% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.15 | 76.93% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.15 | 76.99% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.15 | 76.83% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.15 | 76.90% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.15 | 77.35% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.17 | 74.46% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.17 | 74.27% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.17 | 73.89% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.17 | 74.10% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.17 | 74.05% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.17 | 74.06% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.17 | 74.06% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.1% Legendary 0.0% classified 0.0% pink 0.0% #8847ff 1.2% restricted 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% mil spec 6.1% violet 2.9% milspec 6.5% Rare 31.3% blue 16.5% #4b69ff 17.1% Uncommon 17.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.83 on average: an expected loss of $24.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt