---
title: "PGL Bucharest 2026 case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "PGL Bucharest 2026 ($2.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.78% from 30 items with odds, observed 74.12% over 14.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [PGL Bucharest 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · PGL Bucharest 2026

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026?window=all)

Price · $2.09

Advertised RTP · 73.78% · EV $1.54 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.12% · 14.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74.40% ±3.52 1,933 openings

7 days · 74.03% ±1.45 12.1K openings

30 days · 74.12% ±1.34 14.3K openings

since tracking started · 74.12% ±1.34 14.3K openings

70.0% 74.3% 78.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026?window=24h) | 1,933 | 74.40% ±3.52 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026?window=7d) | 12.1K | 74.03% ±1.45 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026) | 14.3K | 74.12% ±1.34 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pglbucharest2026?window=all) | 14.3K | 74.12% ±1.34 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-field-tested) | 1 in 9,737 | $72.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,568 | $60.76 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.01× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 9,188 | $48.57 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 8,397 | $37.55 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 8,254 | $36.29 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 7,126 | $29.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 5,208 | $22.19 | 0.3% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.19× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,020 | $18.89 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-well-worn) | 1 in 1,728 | $12.73 | 0.5% | 14 | 8.3 | 1.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 1,717 | $12.70 | 0.5% | 13 | 8.3 | 1.56× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 1,542 | $12.16 | 0.5% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 817 | $9.52 | 0.8% | 24 | 17.5 | 1.37× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 668 | $8.83 | 0.9% | 32 | 21.4 | 1.50× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 610 | $8.54 | 0.9% | 30 | 23.4 | 1.28× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 279 | $6.41 | 1.5% | 28 | 51.2 | 0.55× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $4.60 | 2.6% | 135 | 124.8 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $4.55 | 2.7% | 143 | 128.3 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $3.44 | 4.1% | 307 | 259.3 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $2.91 | 5.0% | 384 | 381.5 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.74 | 5.4% | 496 | 433.0 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.16 | 6.8% | 783 | 689.7 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.75 | 7.6% | 511 | 961.5 | 0.53× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.71 | 7.7% | 1,133 | 995.9 | 1.14× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) | 1 in 13 | $1.62 | 7.9% | 1,108 | 1071.4 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 10.2% | $1.15 | 7.6% | 1,484 | 1453.4 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $1.11 | 7.5% | 1,411 | 1479.8 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 10.4% | $1.10 | 7.4% | 1,477 | 1487.9 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 10.4% | $1.10 | 7.4% | 1,418 | 1486.2 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.89 | 6.4% | 1,524 | 1580.3 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Pocket Pop charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-pop) | 11.1% | $0.80 | 5.8% | 1,510 | 1584.4 | 0.95× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=pglbucharest2026)

[SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) [BAXABUXA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BAXABUXA) $2.09 $1.09 0.52x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) [КИПЯЩИЙ АНДРЕЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%98%D0%99%20%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%99) $2.09 $2.11 1.01x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) [КИПЯЩИЙ АНДРЕЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%98%D0%99%20%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%99) $2.09 $1.14 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [КИПЯЩИЙ АНДРЕЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%98%D0%99%20%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%99) $2.09 $1.70 0.81x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [КИПЯЩИЙ АНДРЕЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%98%D0%99%20%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%99) $2.09 $2.70 1.29x 2026-11-11 14:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/) $2.09 $1.74 0.83x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/) $2.09 $1.05 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) [.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/) $2.09 $1.09 0.52x 2026-11-11 14:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) [КИПЯЩИЙ АНДРЕЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%98%D0%99%20%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%99) $2.09 $1.13 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Moments charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-moments) [КИПЯЩИЙ АНДРЕЙ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%98%D0%9F%D0%AF%D0%A9%D0%98%D0%99%20%D0%90%D0%9D%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%99) $2.09 $1.54 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 73.78% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.49% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.50% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.87% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 74.20% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.12% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.16% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.22% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.32% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 74.70% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 74.64% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.78% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.75% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.70% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.72% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.73% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.75% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.68% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.72% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 75.15% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 75.11% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 75.06% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.80% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.82% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.09 | 74.81% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.0% gold 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 1.2% pink 2.9% #d32ee6 0.2% #4b69ff 0.4% restricted 41.9% Classified 1.8% #8847ff 23.4% Rare 6.7% Mythical 10.4% violet 11.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.78 on average: an expected loss of $26.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt