---
title: "Operation Phoenix Weapon Case on csgo.net: odds & RTP"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Operation Phoenix Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 73.93% · EV $1.03 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.79% · 1,500 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.65% ±37.20 185 openings

7 days · 97.52% ±13.32 1,263 openings

30 days · 94.79% ±12.26 1,500 openings

since tracking started · 94.79% ±12.26 1,500 openings

49.0% 86.8% 124.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 74.62% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.52% – 107.05%, 1,500 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix?window=24h) | 185 | 86.65% ±37.2 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix?window=7d) | 1,263 | 97.52% ±13.3 | +3.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix) | 1,500 | 94.79% ±12.3 | +3.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/phoenix?window=all) | 1,500 | 94.79% ±12.3 | +3.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,503 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,992 | $268 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 9,943 | $138 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 9,820 | $94.01 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 9,808 | $91.84 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,677 | $76.88 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 4,905 | $24.41 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 566 | $9.59 | 1.6% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.88× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 494 | $9.13 | 1.8% | 8 | 3.0 | 2.63× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.64 | 14.0% | 110 | 81.7 | 1.35× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.45 | 15.3% | 118 | 96.2 | 1.23× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.41 | 15.5% | 135 | 99.4 | 1.36× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.27 | 16.5% | 163 | 112.3 | 1.45× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-field-tested) | 18.9% | $0.41 | 7.6% | 149 | 284.5 | 0.52× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) | 18.9% | $0.41 | 7.5% | 406 | 284.1 | 1.43× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-minimal-wear) | 18.3% | $0.39 | 6.9% | 99 | 275.2 | 0.36× |
| [Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain-minimal-wear) | 17.5% | $0.36 | 6.2% | 20 | 262.7 | 0.08× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [⛴](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9B%B4) $1.39 $96.73 69.59x 2026-11-09 04:05 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=phoenix)

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [samarov2026](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/samarov2026) $1.39 $2.27 1.63x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) [XIT4IK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/XIT4IK) $1.39 $0.41 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[UMP-45 | Corporal weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $0.39 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[Negev | Terrain weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-terrain) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $0.36 0.26x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $0.44 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $2.61 1.88x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-minimal-wear) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $0.44 0.31x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $2.47 1.78x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[UMP-45 | Corporal weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $0.39 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) [Don Bobrini](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Don%20Bobrini) $1.39 $2.27 1.63x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.39 | 73.93% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.66% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.54% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.46% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.77% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.09% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.07% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.04% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.12% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.19% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.61% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.62% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.58% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.64% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.66% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.64% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.62% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.61% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.64% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.55% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.74% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 75.00% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 74.98% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.91% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.68% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.66% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.74% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.4% violet 5.4% #8847ff 20.5% mil spec 36.4% milspec 18.9% Rare 18.3% best hit $96.73 (69.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.93 on average: an expected loss of $26.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt