--- title: "Prisma case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prisma case ($1.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.13% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.92% over 1,138 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Prisma case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Prisma case A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma?window=all) Price · $1.09 Advertised RTP · 75.13% · EV $0.82 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.92% · 1,138 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 39 openings · below min 7 days · 85.24% ±8.32 1,079 openings 30 days · 84.92% ±8.09 1,138 openings since tracking started · 84.92% ±8.09 1,138 openings 46.5% 91.5% 136.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 75.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.83% – 93.02%, 1,138 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma?window=24h) | 39 | 91.47% ±44.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma?window=7d) | 1,079 | 85.24% ±8.32 | +2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma) | 1,138 | 84.92% ±8.09 | +2.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/prisma?window=all) | 1,138 | 84.92% ±8.09 | +2.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,139 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 9,919 | $109 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 9,271 | $51.14 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 9,254 | $50.73 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $5.99 | 3.4% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× | | [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $5.67 | 3.7% | 10 | 6.1 | 1.63× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $5.46 | 4.0% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $3.61 | 8.1% | 30 | 20.8 | 1.44× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 16.9% | $1.10 | 22.7% | 240 | 192.8 | 1.24× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 20.4% | $0.63 | 15.7% | 6 | 232.3 | 0.03× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 20.2% | $0.59 | 14.5% | 252 | 229.8 | 1.10× | | [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) | 19.9% | $0.56 | 13.6% | 235 | 226.9 | 1.04× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 19.1% | $0.49 | 11.5% | 242 | 217.7 | 1.11× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=prisma) [Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) [Чёртов Джереми Ди](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A7%D1%91%D1%80%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B2%20%D0%94%D0%B6%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B8%20%D0%94%D0%B8) $1.09 $0.49 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $0.60 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $1.08 0.99x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $1.08 0.99x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $0.60 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $0.60 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $1.08 0.99x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $1.08 0.99x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $0.60 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC [MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) [Раст](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A0%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%82) $1.09 $0.56 0.51x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.09 | 75.13% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.09 | 74.75% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.09 | 74.69% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.09 | 75.01% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.09 | 75.52% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.56% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.45% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.41% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.09 | 75.30% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.09 | 76.10% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.09 | 75.76% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.09 | 75.79% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.89% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.09 | 76.04% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.09 | 75.93% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.80% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 76.01% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.87% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.09 | 76.05% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.99% | 13 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.09 | 75.91% | 13 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.02% | 13 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.09 | 76.25% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.09 | 76.35% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.16% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.04% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.12% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.09 | 76.12% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.09 | 76.16% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.09 | 76.17% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 1.6% restricted 78.0% Rare 20.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.13 on average: an expected loss of $24.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt