---
title: "PUBG: Battlegrounds case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "PUBG: Battlegrounds ($0.07) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.61% from 14 items with odds, observed 189.03% over 22.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [PUBG: Battlegrounds](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · PUBG: Battlegrounds

A case on csgo.net (Limited edition), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg?window=all)

Price · $0.07

Advertised RTP · 77.61% · EV $0.05 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 189.03% · 22.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 219.06% ±5.97 1,975 openings

7 days · 193.45% ±1.91 18.1K openings

30 days · 189.03% ±1.70 22.6K openings

since tracking started · 189.03% ±1.70 22.6K openings

77.0% 151.3% 225.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 78.58% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (187.33% – 190.73%, 22,631 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg?window=24h) | 1,975 | 219.06% ±5.97 | +46.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg?window=7d) | 18.1K | 193.45% ±1.91 | +117.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg) | 22.6K | 189.03% ±1.70 | +127.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/pubg?window=all) | 22.6K | 189.03% ±1.70 | +127.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $1.04 | 9.6% | 688 | 113.6 | 6.06× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 199 | $0.82 | 7.6% | 595 | 114.0 | 5.22× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 184 | $0.35 | 3.5% | 595 | 123.0 | 4.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.14 | 2.8% | 656 | 247.1 | 2.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.08 | 4.7% | 1,470 | 712.9 | 2.06× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 25 | $0.07 | 5.3% | 2,959 | 901.7 | 3.28× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.07 | 5.5% | 2,275 | 944.7 | 2.41× |
| [MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.05 | 7.3% | 0 | 1726.8 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.05 | 8.0% | 9,005 | 2052.4 | 4.39× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 11.3% | $0.04 | 8.7% | 0 | 2553.8 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-field-tested) | 12.6% | $0.04 | 9.1% | 0 | 2860.5 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-minimal-wear) | 12.6% | $0.04 | 9.0% | 0 | 2848.6 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-field-tested) | 15.1% | $0.03 | 9.5% | 0 | 3423.4 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rain-station-minimal-wear) | 17.7% | $0.03 | 9.5% | 0 | 4018.5 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=pubg)

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) [XIPAR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/XIPAR) $0.07 $0.08 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) [Din Djarin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Din%20Djarin) $0.07 $0.05 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) [Din Djarin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Din%20Djarin) $0.07 $0.05 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) [Din Djarin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Din%20Djarin) $0.07 $0.05 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) [sabaf2926](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/sabaf2926) $0.07 $0.05 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-field-tested) [SAKURA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SAKURA) $0.07 $0.14 2.03x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) [i sniff my farts](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/i%20sniff%20my%20farts) $0.07 $0.07 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-field-tested) [i sniff my farts](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/i%20sniff%20my%20farts) $0.07 $0.14 2.03x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) [i sniff my farts](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/i%20sniff%20my%20farts) $0.07 $0.08 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) [i sniff my farts](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/i%20sniff%20my%20farts) $0.07 $0.08 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.07 | 77.61% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.07 | 77.38% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.07 | 77.55% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.07 | 77.82% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.07 | 78.12% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.10% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.07 | 77.80% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.12% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.07 | 78.13% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.07 | 78.43% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.07 | 78.47% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.07 | 78.56% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.07 | 78.70% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.07 | 78.69% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.73% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.73% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.67% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.65% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.60% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.07 | 78.60% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.07 | 78.60% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.07 | 79.12% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.07 | 79.10% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.07 | 78.83% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.07 | 78.69% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $0.07 | 78.75% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 07:05 UTC | $0.07 | 78.68% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 05:18 UTC | $0.07 | 79.01% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 23:08 UTC | $0.07 | 78.70% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.07 | 78.59% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed violet 1.5% #4b69ff 10.2% milspec 3.1% Rare 8.2% industrial 7.6% #87c7ff 11.3% #5e98d9 30.4% consumer 12.6% Uncommon 15.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.61 on average: an expected loss of $22.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt