---
title: "Real pirate case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Real pirate ($0.13) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 71.85% from 27 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Real pirate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Real pirate

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate?window=all)

Price · $0.13

Advertised RTP · 71.85% · EV $0.09 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/realpirate?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,959 | $96.97 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 198,634 | $30.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 198,586 | $29.76 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 196,934 | $22.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 35,335 | $3.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 34,428 | $3.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 7,707 | $1.95 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 5,509 | $1.74 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 1,608 | $1.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 1,445 | $1.10 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 737 | $0.87 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 498 | $0.76 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 382 | $0.70 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 307 | $0.64 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.36 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.32 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.26 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.23 | 11.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.17 | 14.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 15.6% | $0.07 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-well-worn) | 15.6% | $0.07 | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-field-tested) | 15.2% | $0.06 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.02 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.02 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Waves Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-waves-perforated-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=realpirate)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.13 | 71.85% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 71.52% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.36% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.54% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.64% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 72.12% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.06% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.05% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.19% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.13% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 72.51% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 72.55% | 27 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 72.54% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.53% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.39% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.48% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.65% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.51% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.51% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.52% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.53% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.43% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.62% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 73.03% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 73.02% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.77% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.60% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.67% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.71% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 72.63% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 15.2% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% mil spec 7.2% Legendary 0.0% Mythical 0.5% Rare 0.3% restricted 0.1% #8847ff 0.1% #4b69ff 12.9% milspec 31.2% consumer 27.7% #B0C3D9 4.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.85 on average: an expected loss of $28.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt