--- title: "Recoil Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Recoil Case ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.24% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.43% over 7,707 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase rendered: 2026-11-11T17:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Recoil Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Recoil Case A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase?window=all) Price · $6.79 Advertised RTP · 76.24% · EV $5.18 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.43% · 7,707 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 36.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 15 openings · below min 7 days · 83.73% ±6.22 1,673 openings 30 days · 83.43% ±2.96 7,707 openings since tracking started · 83.43% ±2.96 7,707 openings 31.5% 93.5% 155.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.44% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.46% – 86.39%, 7,707 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase?window=24h) | 15 | 93.54% ±61.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase?window=7d) | 1,673 | 83.73% ±6.22 | +2.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase) | 7,707 | 83.43% ±2.96 | +4.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/recoilcase?window=all) | 7,707 | 83.43% ±2.96 | +4.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,707 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 18,428 | $487 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 13,349 | $270 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 2,348 | $109 | 0.9% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-field-tested) | 1 in 883 | $76.41 | 1.7% | 19 | 8.7 | 2.18× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $42.72 | 4.9% | 70 | 46.0 | 1.52× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $31.94 | 8.3% | 54 | 104.1 | 0.52× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $31.93 | 8.3% | 90 | 104.2 | 0.86× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 32.9% | $4.48 | 28.4% | 2 | 2532.3 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 32.7% | $4.15 | 26.2% | 1,663 | 2517.8 | 0.66× | | [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 31.0% | $3.39 | 20.3% | 1,702 | 2389.6 | 0.71× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=recoilcase) [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [w0w](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/w0w) $6.79 $3.40 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [FeRlEsS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FeRlEsS) $6.79 $4.15 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [FeRlEsS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FeRlEsS) $6.79 $4.47 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [FeRlEsS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FeRlEsS) $6.79 $4.47 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $6.79 $3.38 0.50x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $6.79 $3.38 0.50x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) [$AK€\_\[kzKRG\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%24AK%E2%82%AC_%5BkzKRG%5D) $6.79 $4.45 0.66x 2026-11-11 06:26 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) [MindFree](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MindFree) $6.79 $42.57 6.27x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [MindFree](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MindFree) $6.79 $3.46 0.51x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC [P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [MindFree](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MindFree) $6.79 $3.46 0.51x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.24% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.03% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.89% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.87% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.18% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.51% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.48% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.49% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.51% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.56% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 76.97% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.07% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.94% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.04% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.41% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.45% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.30% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.13% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.08% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.11% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.7% sunny 0.1% covert 2.7% pink 63.9% Legendary 32.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.24 on average: an expected loss of $23.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt