---
title: "Красная коллекция case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Красная коллекция ($0.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 58.29% from 33 items with odds, observed 84.28% over 3,578 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Красная коллекция](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Красная коллекция

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection?window=all)

Price · $0.09

Advertised RTP · 58.29% · EV $0.05 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.28% · 3,578 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.71% ±5.15 378 openings

7 days · 86.38% ±1.81 3,014 openings

30 days · 84.28% ±1.67 3,578 openings

since tracking started · 84.28% ±1.67 3,578 openings

57.5% 74.5% 91.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 59.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.61% – 85.96%, 3,578 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection?window=24h) | 378 | 85.71% ±5.15 | +10.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection?window=7d) | 3,014 | 86.38% ±1.81 | +29.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection) | 3,578 | 84.28% ±1.67 | +29.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redcollection?window=all) | 3,578 | 84.28% ±1.67 | +29.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,579 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 184,703 | $4.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Hero charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-hero) | 1 in 181,252 | $3.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 158,690 | $2.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 153,299 | $2.76 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 138,594 | $2.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 112,779 | $2.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 80,163 | $1.62 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 28,614 | $1.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28,761 | $1.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 16,562 | $0.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-well-worn) | 1 in 13,770 | $0.78 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,503 | $0.68 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 6,343 | $0.59 | 0.2% | 5 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 4,059 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 4 | 0.9 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 4,104 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,936 | $0.40 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 1,317 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 8 | 2.7 | 2.94× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 1,068 | $0.32 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 882 | $0.30 | 0.7% | 12 | 4.1 | 2.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-well-worn) | 1 in 518 | $0.25 | 0.9% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 265 | $0.20 | 1.4% | 25 | 13.5 | 1.85× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $0.15 | 2.6% | 0 | 33.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $0.13 | 3.2% | 71 | 46.1 | 1.54× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $0.10 | 5.3% | 76 | 99.8 | 0.76× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.10 | 5.3% | 74 | 102.3 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.08 | 7.3% | 174 | 169.2 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 16 | $0.07 | 8.6% | 324 | 223.5 | 1.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.07 | 8.9% | 277 | 235.9 | 1.17× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.07 | 8.8% | 286 | 232.2 | 1.23× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.07 | 9.4% | 305 | 256.2 | 1.19× |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.06 | 10.4% | 537 | 306.2 | 1.75× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 10.5% | 686 | 317.9 | 2.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-well-worn) | 42.5% | $0.02 | 13.8% | 0 | 1520.4 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=redcollection)

[PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-field-tested) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $0.09 $0.07 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) [Drifter](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Drifter) $0.09 $0.06 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) [♕FRiP♕](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%99%95FRiP%E2%99%95) $0.09 $0.06 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.09 $0.06 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-field-tested) [(#\\\\™//#)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%28%23%5C%5C%E2%84%A2%2F%2F%23%29) $0.09 $0.11 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) [kaurka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kaurka) $0.09 $0.06 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-field-tested) [1shot ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/1shot%20%E2%99%9B) $0.09 $0.09 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [4ETAKOE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4ETAKOE) $0.09 $0.07 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-field-tested) [4ETAKOE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4ETAKOE) $0.09 $0.06 0.71x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [✪ InF'Sharoo ︻デ 一](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%AA%20InF'Sharoo%20%EF%B8%BB%E3%83%87%20%E4%B8%80) $0.09 $0.07 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.09 | 58.29% | 33 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.09 | 58.18% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.09 | 58.21% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.09 | 58.32% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.09 | 58.71% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.09 | 58.77% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.09 | 58.68% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.09 | 58.82% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.09 | 58.97% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.09 | 59.29% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.09 | 59.20% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.09 | 59.21% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.09 | 58.99% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.09 | 59.11% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.09 | 59.05% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.09 | 59.25% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 59.08% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.09 | 59.17% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.09 | 58.86% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.09 | 58.97% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.09 | 59.22% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.09 | 59.40% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.09 | 59.36% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.09 | 58.94% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.09 | 59.23% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.09 | 59.14% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $0.09 | 59.05% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 07:05 UTC | $0.09 | 59.22% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.09 | 59.27% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 15:56 UTC | $0.09 | 59.53% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 0.9% classified 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% pink 0.0% #4b69ff 27.5% #8847ff 0.0% Rare 12.8% restricted 0.1% mil spec 0.7% violet 0.1% Mythical 0.0% uncommon 0.0% blue 4.2% milspec 11.2% Common 42.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 58.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $58.29 on average: an expected loss of $41.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt