---
title: "REDDER case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "REDDER ($16.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.66% from 37 items with odds, observed 80.42% over 307 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [REDDER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · REDDER

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder?window=all)

Price · $16.99

Advertised RTP · 76.66% · EV $13.02 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.42% · 307 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 80.12% ±15.49 256 openings

30 days · 80.42% ±14.18 307 openings

since tracking started · 80.42% ±14.18 307 openings

10.5% 61.7% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder?window=24h) | 24 | 61.63% ±50.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder?window=7d) | 256 | 80.12% ±15.5 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder) | 307 | 80.42% ±14.2 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/redder?window=all) | 307 | 80.42% ±14.2 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 199,940 | $7,581 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 157,299 | $784 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149,274 | $727 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 91,069 | $478 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 86,604 | $464 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 35,723 | $305 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 33,137 | $296 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 29,721 | $283 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 12,371 | $205 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 5,735 | $156 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,373 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,346 | $115 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 1,908 | $107 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 1,521 | $99.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,498 | $98.94 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,284 | $93.88 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 1,229 | $92.49 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,201 | $91.77 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 685 | $75.79 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 491 | $67.61 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 406 | $63.34 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $61.12 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $52.68 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 214 | $50.73 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 121 | $41.54 | 2.6% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.36× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $39.83 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $38.48 | 3.0% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.27× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $33.79 | 3.8% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $33.46 | 3.8% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $31.85 | 4.2% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $28.62 | 5.0% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $23.98 | 6.5% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.82× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $19.57 | 8.6% | 19 | 17.6 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $16.58 | 10.3% | 19 | 25.0 | 0.76× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 22.1% | $7.85 | 13.3% | 72 | 68.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 24.2% | $6.32 | 11.7% | 14 | 74.8 | 0.19× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 24.3% | $6.15 | 11.5% | 50 | 75.2 | 0.66× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=redder)

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $16.99 $6.47 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $16.99 $6.47 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $16.99 $6.47 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $16.99 $6.34 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [borabora](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/borabora) $16.99 $6.47 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $16.99 $33.83 1.99x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $16.99 $7.85 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Rad1k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rad1k) $16.99 $6.33 0.37x 2026-11-11 11:33 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [Лаурка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9B%D0%B0%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0) $16.99 $16.58 0.98x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [reactoR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/reactoR) $16.99 $31.71 1.87x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $16.99 | 76.66% | 37 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $16.99 | 76.48% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $16.99 | 76.46% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $16.99 | 76.76% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $16.99 | 77.09% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.11% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.09% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.17% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.22% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $16.99 | 77.62% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $16.99 | 77.62% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $16.99 | 77.64% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $16.99 | 77.65% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.67% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.62% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.65% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.59% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.70% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $16.99 | 78.05% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $16.99 | 78.07% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.97% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.65% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.75% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.73% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $16.99 | 77.75% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $16.99 | 77.71% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.9% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 41.3% red 0.3% Ancient 4.0% pink 24.2% #d32ee6 24.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.66 on average: an expected loss of $23.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt