---
title: "Ретро-осень case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ретро-осень ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.92% from 29 items with odds, observed 78.19% over 12.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Ретро-осень](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Ретро-осень

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 77.92% · EV $0.52 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.19% · 12.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.64% ±4.45 962 openings

7 days · 78.27% ±1.43 9,525 openings

30 days · 78.19% ±1.25 12.4K openings

since tracking started · 78.19% ±1.25 12.4K openings

71.5% 76.5% 81.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn?window=24h) | 962 | 76.64% ±4.45 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn?window=7d) | 9,525 | 78.27% ±1.43 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn) | 12.4K | 78.19% ±1.25 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/retroautumn?window=all) | 12.4K | 78.19% ±1.25 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,623 | $18.91 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 9,376 | $15.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 9,286 | $15.10 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,729 | $12.20 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,232 | $10.72 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 7,625 | $9.47 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 7,305 | $8.94 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $6.41 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 4,329 | $5.85 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 2,961 | $4.79 | 0.3% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,455 | $3.53 | 0.5% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 595 | $2.52 | 0.8% | 7 | 20.9 | 0.34× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $1.70 | 1.6% | 74 | 61.6 | 1.20× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $1.44 | 2.2% | 158 | 97.5 | 1.62× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $1.32 | 2.5% | 94 | 123.1 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $1.12 | 3.2% | 241 | 187.5 | 1.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $1.10 | 3.3% | 262 | 197.2 | 1.33× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.92 | 4.3% | 377 | 303.9 | 1.24× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.84 | 4.9% | 428 | 376.9 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.80 | 5.2% | 436 | 423.9 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 18 | $0.63 | 6.6% | 679 | 684.1 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.60 | 7.0% | 873 | 760.6 | 1.15× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.56 | 7.4% | 870 | 857.9 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.54 | 7.5% | 743 | 899.5 | 0.83× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.47 | 8.1% | 924 | 1112.2 | 0.83× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $0.38 | 8.4% | 850 | 1424.2 | 0.60× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) | 11.6% | $0.38 | 8.4% | 1,057 | 1435.8 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 13.0% | $0.33 | 8.2% | 1,341 | 1617.4 | 0.83× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 14.6% | $0.25 | 6.9% | 1,459 | 1810.5 | 0.81× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=retroautumn)

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [tigax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/tigax) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:00 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) [Пора домой](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%20%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.36 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.25 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 19:55 UTC

[P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [- quick ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/-%20quick%20%E3%83%84) $0.67 $0.47 0.70x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.40 0.59x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.36 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-field-tested) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.56 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-field-tested) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.60 0.90x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) [Молодой и богатый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9C%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.67 $0.36 0.54x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 77.92% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 77.89% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.73% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.44% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.97% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 78.28% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.25% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.12% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.26% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.37% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 78.85% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 78.74% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 78.73% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.73% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.55% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.60% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.72% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.77% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.66% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.67% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.79% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.60% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.82% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 79.09% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 79.06% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 79.04% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.77% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.90% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.84% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 78.72% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 0.0% classified 0.1% pink 1.6% #4b69ff 0.0% rare 0.0% violet 29.4% restricted 36.6% #8847ff 19.7% Mythical 7.1% uncommon 5.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.92 on average: an expected loss of $22.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt