---
title: "Revolution Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Revolution Case ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.22% from 23 items with odds, observed 98.79% over 1,293 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Revolution Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Revolution Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 75.22% · EV $8.27 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.79% · 1,293 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 38 openings · below min

30 days · 98.79% ±7.40 1,293 openings

since tracking started · 98.79% ±7.40 1,293 openings

74.5% 244.5% 414.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 76.39% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.39% – 106.19%, 1,293 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase?window=24h) | 3 | 260.05% ±153.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase?window=7d) | 38 | 122.21% ±41.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase) | 1,293 | 98.79% ±7.40 | +5.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/revolutioncase?window=all) | 1,293 | 98.79% ±7.40 | +5.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,293 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 3,998 | $261 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 1,746 | $177 | 1.2% | 5 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 886 | $137 | 1.9% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.43× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-field-tested) | 1 in 617 | $120 | 2.3% | 10 | 2.1 | 4.77× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $54.61 | 9.7% | 21 | 18.9 | 1.11× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $52.94 | 10.2% | 21 | 20.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $30.47 | 24.2% | 121 | 84.8 | 1.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $29.25 | 25.5% | 99 | 93.2 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 21.4% | $3.09 | 8.0% | 261 | 277.1 | 0.94× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 21.4% | $3.08 | 8.0% | 259 | 276.6 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 20.4% | $2.91 | 7.2% | 296 | 263.8 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.85 | 0.7% | 0 | 83.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 27 | 34.5 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 30 | 34.5 | 0.87× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 40 | 31.2 | 1.28× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 32 | 30.9 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 1 in 201 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 1 | 6.0 | 0.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 3 | 5.8 | 0.52× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) | 1 in 224 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 1 | 5.8 | 0.17× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 256 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [P250 \| Re.built (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-re-built-field-tested) | 1 in 253 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.20× |
| [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 4.7 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=revolutioncase)

[M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) [G\_VDS\_I](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/G_VDS_I) $10.99 $28.17 2.56x 2026-11-10 22:18 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) [G\_VDS\_I](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/G_VDS_I) $10.99 $54.48 4.96x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [ARtEmiy(\_)\_\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ARtEmiy%28_%29_*-1379508) $10.99 $3.09 0.28x 2026-11-10 18:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) [ЕБЕНЬ ОБЫКНОВЕНЫ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%91%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%AC%20%D0%9E%D0%91%D0%AB%D0%9A%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%AB) $10.99 $0.38 0.03x 2026-11-10 00:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-field-tested) [ЕБЕНЬ ОБЫКНОВЕНЫ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%95%D0%91%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%AC%20%D0%9E%D0%91%D0%AB%D0%9A%D0%9D%D0%9E%D0%92%D0%95%D0%9D%D0%AB) $10.99 $29.65 2.70x 2026-11-10 00:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) [G\_VDS\_I](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/G_VDS_I) $10.99 $28.83 2.62x 2026-11-09 19:57 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [G\_VDS\_I](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/G_VDS_I) $10.99 $3.07 0.28x 2026-11-09 19:54 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) [G\_VDS\_I](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/G_VDS_I) $10.99 $3.11 0.28x 2026-11-09 19:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) [G\_VDS\_I](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/G_VDS_I) $10.99 $3.11 0.28x 2026-11-09 19:48 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) [ArT1K](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ArT1K) $10.99 $3.00 0.27x 2026-11-09 18:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.22% | 23 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.05% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.02% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.30% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.65% | 23 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.68% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.69% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.75% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.21% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.20% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.19% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.10% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.24% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $10.99 | 76.59% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.49% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 76.27% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.4% extraordinary 3.3% epic 0.1% Ancient 6.6% covert 7.2% pink 63.2% #8847ff 6.5% violet 7.7% Mythical 2.4% #4b69ff 1.3% milspec 0.9% blue 0.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.22 on average: an expected loss of $24.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt