--- title: "Rising Sun case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rising Sun ($16.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.86% from 15 items with odds, observed 429.55% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun rendered: 2026-11-11T18:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Rising Sun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Rising Sun A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun?window=all) Price · $16.99 Advertised RTP · 76.86% · EV $13.06 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 429.55% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min 77.0% 379.3% 681.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun?window=7d) | 1 | 429.55% ±251.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun) | 1 | 429.55% ±251.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/rising-sun?window=all) | 1 | 429.55% ±251.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 36,611 | $867 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 11,992 | $570 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 6,359 | $456 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new-2) | 1 in 6,036 | $448 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,102 | $392 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $78.26 | 14.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $74.55 | 15.4% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $73.84 | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 20.1% | $11.64 | 17.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 18.9% | $10.23 | 14.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-minimal-wear) | 12.3% | $5.64 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-field-tested) | 10.7% | $4.79 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-field-tested) | 10.4% | $4.63 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 10.3% | $4.60 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $4.11 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=rising-sun) [MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-field-tested) [Som](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Som) $16.99 $72.98 4.30x 2026-11-07 19:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $16.99 | 76.86% | 15 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $16.99 | 76.66% | 15 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $16.99 | 76.49% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $16.99 | 76.47% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $16.99 | 76.77% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $16.99 | 77.10% | 15 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.10% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.10% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.14% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $16.99 | 77.21% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $16.99 | 77.67% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $16.99 | 77.62% | 15 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $16.99 | 77.62% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $16.99 | 77.65% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.65% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.62% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.63% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.64% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.65% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $16.99 | 77.58% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.71% | 15 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $16.99 | 78.05% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $16.99 | 78.06% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.98% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.66% | 15 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.74% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $16.99 | 77.75% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $16.99 | 77.74% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.0% restricted 0.0% covert 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.4% mil spec 5.5% Industrial Grade 20.1% industrial 18.9% consumer 12.3% #B0C3D9 10.7% Consumer Grade 19.7% gray 10.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.86 on average: an expected loss of $23.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt