--- title: "Safehouse case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Safehouse ($0.10) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 72.60% from 8 items with odds, observed 131.40% over 75 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Safehouse](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Safehouse A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse?window=all) Price · $0.10 Advertised RTP · 72.60% · EV $0.07 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 131.40% · 75 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 51 openings · below min 30 days · 75 openings · below min since tracking started · 75 openings · below min 72.5% 112.3% 152.0% **Small sample.** 75 openings and 32.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse?window=7d) | 51 | 137.14% ±14.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse) | 75 | 131.40% ±12.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/safehouse?window=all) | 75 | 131.40% ±12.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 75 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 240 | $0.56 | 3.2% | 3 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $0.40 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) | 13.7% | $0.12 | 22.1% | 34 | 10.3 | 3.31× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.11 | 22.1% | 30 | 11.2 | 2.67× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 18.6% | $0.06 | 14.8% | 0 | 13.9 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 17.9% | $0.05 | 12.3% | 0 | 13.4 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 16.8% | $0.04 | 9.9% | 0 | 12.6 | 0.00× | | [M249 \| Gator Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-gator-mesh-minimal-wear) | 16.6% | $0.04 | 9.6% | 0 | 12.5 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=safehouse) [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [patrikjeline](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/patrikjeline) $0.10 $0.56 5.60x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [patrikjeline](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/patrikjeline) $0.10 $0.11 1.09x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [patrikjeline](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/patrikjeline) $0.10 $0.56 5.60x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [patrikjeline](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/patrikjeline) $0.10 $0.11 1.09x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [kytys5000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kytys5000) $0.10 $0.08 0.81x 2026-11-09 17:17 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [ivan\_brichicov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ivan_brichicov) $0.10 $0.08 0.81x 2026-11-09 15:44 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [ivan\_brichicov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ivan_brichicov) $0.10 $0.08 0.81x 2026-11-09 15:44 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [ivan\_brichicov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ivan_brichicov) $0.10 $0.08 0.81x 2026-11-09 15:44 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-field-tested) [Sherifff](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sherifff) $0.10 $0.08 0.81x 2026-11-09 14:12 UTC [FAMAS | Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) [FS|B|](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FS%7CB%7C) $0.10 $0.13 1.33x 2026-11-09 12:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.10 | 72.60% | 8 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 72.36% | 8 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 72.25% | 8 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 72.29% | 9 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 72.63% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 72.97% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.95% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.90% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.77% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 72.65% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 73.43% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 73.44% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 73.39% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 73.36% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 73.29% | 8 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 73.56% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.39% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.46% | 7 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.36% | 9 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.34% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.41% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 73.30% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.33% | 8 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 73.72% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 73.77% | 8 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.66% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.37% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.58% | 9 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 73.36% | 8 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 73.43% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 17.9% mil spec 15.4% restricted 1.1% #4b69ff 13.7% industrial 35.2% #87c7ff 16.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 72.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $72.60 on average: an expected loss of $27.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt