---
title: "SAH4R case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SAH4R ($5.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.75% from 34 items with odds, observed 77.98% over 3,529 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [SAH4R](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · SAH4R

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r?window=all)

Price · $5.39

Advertised RTP · 76.75% · EV $4.14 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.98% · 3,529 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68.09% ±14.14 258 openings

7 days · 78.60% ±4.28 2,966 openings

30 days · 77.98% ±3.93 3,529 openings

since tracking started · 77.98% ±3.93 3,529 openings

53.5% 68.5% 83.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r?window=24h) | 258 | 68.09% ±14.1 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r?window=7d) | 2,966 | 78.60% ±4.28 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r) | 3,529 | 77.98% ±3.93 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sah4r?window=all) | 3,529 | 77.98% ±3.93 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,530 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,948 | $314 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,925 | $277 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,784 | $194 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 9,596 | $156 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,014 | $114 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 8,847 | $107 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,502 | $96.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 8,379 | $94.01 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,639 | $80.40 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 4,828 | $53.07 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 4,212 | $48.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 4,059 | $47.81 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,567 | $44.58 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 2,850 | $39.91 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 2,818 | $39.70 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.40× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,732 | $39.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,689 | $31.82 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,530 | $30.59 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,212 | $27.93 | 0.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 740 | $23.22 | 0.8% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 439 | $19.22 | 1.1% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.24× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 325 | $17.26 | 1.3% | 14 | 10.9 | 1.29× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 231 | $15.29 | 1.6% | 11 | 15.3 | 0.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $11.87 | 2.5% | 41 | 31.0 | 1.32× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $11.02 | 2.9% | 28 | 37.9 | 0.74× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $10.43 | 3.2% | 76 | 44.1 | 1.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $8.94 | 4.1% | 50 | 66.6 | 0.75× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $8.44 | 4.5% | 80 | 77.5 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 10.5% | $4.22 | 10.7% | 432 | 371.4 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 10.8% | $4.15 | 10.9% | 424 | 382.7 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 12.3% | $3.85 | 11.5% | 415 | 435.2 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) | 15.9% | $3.25 | 12.5% | 408 | 560.1 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 19.6% | $2.70 | 12.8% | 679 | 691.6 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 22.0% | $2.36 | 12.5% | 285 | 774.9 | 0.37× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=sah4r)

[AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) [miretoteatr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/miretoteatr) $5.39 $10.98 2.04x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) [FidS!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FidS!) $5.39 $2.31 0.43x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC

[AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-minimal-wear) [FidS!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FidS!) $5.39 $10.98 2.04x 2026-11-11 18:39 UTC

[G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) [FidS!](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FidS!) $5.39 $9.69 1.80x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Igor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Igor) $5.39 $2.69 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:32 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $5.39 $2.51 0.47x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $5.39 $4.23 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $5.39 $2.69 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Graz Galan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Graz%20Galan) $5.39 $2.69 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-well-worn) [bio](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bio) $5.39 $2.51 0.47x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $5.39 | 76.75% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.39 | 76.53% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.41% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.44% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.70% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.39 | 77.05% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.05% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.05% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.07% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.11% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.39 | 77.53% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.39 | 77.52% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.39 | 77.51% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.57% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.55% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.57% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.55% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.61% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.49% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.60% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.39 | 77.99% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.39 | 77.97% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.85% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.59% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.66% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.64% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.39 | 77.63% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% #8847ff 0.0% classified 37.7% Ancient 0.1% red 0.1% Legendary 11.9% #d32ee6 2.2% Mythical 12.3% violet 15.9% restricted 19.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.75 on average: an expected loss of $23.25 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt