--- title: "Saullo case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Saullo ($57.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.69% from 10 items with odds, observed 86.69% over 379 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Saullo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Saullo A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo?window=all) Price · $57.99 Advertised RTP · 76.69% · EV $44.47 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.69% · 379 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 86.77% ±7.16 344 openings 30 days · 86.69% ±6.83 379 openings since tracking started · 86.69% ±6.83 379 openings 71.5% 91.0% 110.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.86% – 93.53%, 379 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo?window=24h) | 48 | 91.05% ±19.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo?window=7d) | 344 | 86.77% ±7.16 | +2.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo) | 379 | 86.69% ±6.83 | +2.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullo?window=all) | 379 | 86.69% ±6.83 | +2.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 379 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 4,670 | $663 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 149 | $205 | 3.1% | 5 | 2.5 | 1.97× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $146 | 5.7% | 12 | 6.6 | 1.81× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $101 | 10.5% | 29 | 17.6 | 1.65× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $99.95 | 10.7% | 15 | 18.0 | 0.83× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $87.12 | 13.1% | 6 | 25.3 | 0.24× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $85.28 | 13.5% | 1 | 26.6 | 0.04× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 10.4% | $71.66 | 16.8% | 31 | 39.5 | 0.78× | | [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 39.3% | $24.61 | 21.8% | 96 | 149.0 | 0.64× | | [Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) | 24.7% | $8.12 | 4.5% | 54 | 93.7 | 0.58× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=saullo) [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [DaBuggs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DaBuggs) $57.99 $23.31 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [DaBuggs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DaBuggs) $57.99 $23.31 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [🩶L,E,K,A🩶](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9F%A9%B6L%2CE%2CK%2CA%F0%9F%A9%B6) $57.99 $87.93 1.52x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Bilendor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Bilendor) $57.99 $23.36 0.40x 2026-11-11 11:18 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $57.99 $23.25 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $57.99 $23.25 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $57.99 $144 2.48x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $57.99 $23.25 0.40x 2026-11-11 10:17 UTC [Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-minimal-wear) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $57.99 $8.03 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [Heraclius II](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Heraclius%20II) $57.99 $100 1.73x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $57.99 | 76.69% | 10 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $57.99 | 76.51% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $57.99 | 76.50% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $57.99 | 76.79% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $57.99 | 77.13% | 10 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.15% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.12% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.19% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $57.99 | 77.25% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $57.99 | 77.66% | 10 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $57.99 | 77.65% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.69% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.66% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.67% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.68% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $57.99 | 77.61% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.73% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $57.99 | 78.09% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $57.99 | 78.10% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $57.99 | 78.00% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.69% | 10 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.78% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $57.99 | 77.77% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $57.99 | 77.78% | 10 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $57.99 | 77.75% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 10.5% classified 0.7% Immortal 1.8% covert 18.3% covert knife 4.8% Mythical 39.3% Restricted 24.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.69 on average: an expected loss of $23.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt