--- title: "Saullo mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Saullo mining ($1.89) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 65.03% from 12 items with odds, observed 4236.18% over 905 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Saullo mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Saullo mining A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining?window=all) Price · $1.89 Advertised RTP · 65.03% · EV $1.23 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 4236.18% · 905 openings, odds method Variance · 81.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 56 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 254 openings · below min 7 days · 4207.29% ±65.13 771 openings 30 days · 4236.18% ±60.50 905 openings since tracking started · 4236.18% ±60.50 905 openings 64.5% 2279.8% 4495.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 65.65% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (4175.68% – 4296.68%, 905 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining?window=24h) | 254 | 4383.20% ±111.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining?window=7d) | 771 | 4207.29% ±65.1 | +124.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining) | 905 | 4236.18% ±60.5 | +135.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/saullomining?window=all) | 905 | 4236.18% ±60.5 | +135.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 905 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,972 | $1,050 | 17.2% | 16 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,594 | $191 | 6.0% | 22 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 2,317 | $177 | 6.2% | 28 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 838 | $109 | 10.6% | 72 | 1.1 | 66.65× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $43.48 | 55.1% | 380 | 14.1 | 26.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) | 19.5% | $0.08 | 1.3% | 0 | 176.2 | 0.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 16.4% | $0.07 | 0.9% | 0 | 148.6 | 0.00× | | [MP5-SD \| Neon Squeezer (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-neon-squeezer-field-tested) | 14.1% | $0.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 127.7 | 0.00× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 12.8% | $0.05 | 0.6% | 0 | 116.2 | 0.00× | | [P90 \| Ash Wood (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-minimal-wear) | 12.4% | $0.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 112.0 | 0.00× | | [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $0.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 105.2 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 11.4% | $0.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 103.0 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler) [Reserva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Reserva) $1.89 $1,134 599.8x 2026-11-03 00:57 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [OgNo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OgNo) $1.89 $1,133 599.7x 2026-11-03 02:12 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Thaisinha](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Thaisinha) $1.89 $1,130 597.6x 2026-11-05 03:44 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1.89 $1,119 592.3x 2026-11-04 22:16 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [lestor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/lestor) $1.89 $1,104 584.0x 2026-11-08 15:49 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [† Ameno †](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%80%A0%20Ameno%20%E2%80%A0) $1.89 $1,097 580.7x 2026-11-06 17:41 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [CASLU](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CASLU) $1.89 $1,094 578.9x 2026-11-06 21:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [bruxo aposentado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bruxo%20aposentado) $1.89 $1,092 577.7x 2026-11-07 06:43 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [IGROGAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IGROGAME) $1.89 $1,084 573.5x 2026-11-05 22:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [bruxo aposentado](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/bruxo%20aposentado) $1.89 $1,084 573.4x 2026-11-06 05:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=saullomining) [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $1.89 $43.64 23.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [R1cardoneS - ReikoL4](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/R1cardoneS%20-%20ReikoL4) $1.89 $43.64 23.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [.60](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/.60) $1.89 $43.50 23.02x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $43.50 23.02x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $43.50 23.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $43.50 23.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $43.50 23.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $109 57.74x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $43.50 23.02x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) [Asgardec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Asgardec) $1.89 $109 57.74x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.89 | 65.03% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.89 | 64.88% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.89 | 64.87% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.89 | 65.11% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.89 | 65.40% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.89 | 65.40% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.89 | 65.39% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.89 | 65.45% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.89 | 65.50% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.89 | 65.87% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.89 | 65.84% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.89 | 65.84% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.89 | 65.86% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.89 | 65.86% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.89 | 65.86% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.89 | 65.87% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.89 | 65.85% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.89 | 65.86% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.89 | 65.86% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.89 | 65.87% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.89 | 65.81% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.89 | 65.91% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.89 | 66.21% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.89 | 66.22% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.89 | 66.14% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.89 | 65.88% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.89 | 65.96% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.89 | 65.95% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.89 | 65.96% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.89 | 65.93% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 2 11.6% #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% sunny 1.6% industrial 72.5% #5e98d9 14.1% best hit $1,134 (599.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 65.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $65.03 on average: an expected loss of $34.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt