--- title: "Свирепый медведь case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Свирепый медведь ($0.21) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.67% from 6 items with odds, observed 3711.19% over 83 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear rendered: 2026-11-11T18:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Свирепый медведь](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Свирепый медведь A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear?window=all) Price · $0.21 Advertised RTP · 62.67% · EV $0.13 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 3711.19% · 83 openings, odds method Variance · 30.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 19 openings · below min 30 days · 83 openings · below min since tracking started · 83 openings · below min 62.0% 2557.7% 5053.5% **Small sample.** 83 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear?window=24h) | 9 | 4449.21% ±366.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear?window=7d) | 19 | 4803.01% ±249.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear) | 83 | 3711.19% ±119.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/savagebear?window=all) | 83 | 3711.19% ±119.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 83 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,712 | $45.59 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 2,971 | $22.82 | 5.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 2,017 | $19.22 | 7.2% | 3 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 560 | $11.85 | 16.1% | 11 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $5.84 | 62.6% | 66 | 1.2 | 56.36× | | [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 98.3% | \<$0.01 | 3.7% | 0 | 81.6 | 0.00× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) [sᴀᴛᴏʀᴜシ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/s%E1%B4%80%E1%B4%9B%E1%B4%8F%CA%80%E1%B4%9C%E3%82%B7) $0.21 $42.76 203.6x 2026-11-07 14:05 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $21.56 102.7x 2026-11-04 09:21 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $19.26 91.71x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $19.25 91.67x 2026-11-04 08:58 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $18.81 89.57x 2026-11-04 09:17 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [sᴀᴛᴏʀᴜシ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/s%E1%B4%80%E1%B4%9B%E1%B4%8F%CA%80%E1%B4%9C%E3%82%B7) $0.21 $12.33 58.71x 2026-11-07 14:05 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $12.08 57.52x 2026-11-04 09:40 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [Miki mays](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Miki%20mays) $0.21 $12.08 57.52x 2026-11-04 09:34 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $12.08 57.52x 2026-11-04 09:00 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $12.08 57.52x 2026-11-04 08:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=savagebear) [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $11.85 56.43x 2026-11-11 14:55 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $5.84 27.81x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $5.87 27.95x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $5.87 27.95x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $11.83 56.33x 2026-11-11 12:28 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $5.87 27.95x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $19.26 91.71x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [AWP | Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $5.87 27.95x 2026-11-11 12:25 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [OnIkS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/OnIkS) $0.21 $11.83 56.33x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [torch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/torch) $0.21 $11.84 56.38x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.21 | 62.67% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 62.65% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 62.55% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 62.49% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 62.77% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 63.01% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 63.04% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 63.02% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 62.94% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 62.95% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 63.29% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 63.28% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 63.28% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 63.41% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.45% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.42% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.44% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.45% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 63.40% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.48% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 63.69% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 63.74% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.64% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.42% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.49% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 63.51% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 63.55% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 0.0% classified 0.3% #d32ce6 1.4% consumer 98.3% best hit $42.76 (203.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.67 on average: an expected loss of $37.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt