--- title: "sh1ro case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "sh1ro ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 72.38% from 12 items with odds, observed 229.54% over 12.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [sh1ro](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · sh1ro A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro?window=all) Price · $0.67 Advertised RTP · 72.38% · EV $0.48 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 229.54% · 12.4K openings, odds method Variance · 177.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 554 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,385 openings · below min 7 days · 205.15% ±25.91 10.3K openings 30 days · 229.54% ±23.69 12.4K openings since tracking started · 229.54% ±23.69 12.4K openings 71.5% 216.3% 361.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 73.26% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (205.85% – 253.22%, 12,368 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro?window=24h) | 1,385 | 290.30% ±70.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro?window=7d) | 10.3K | 205.15% ±25.9 | +10.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro) | 12.4K | 229.54% ±23.7 | +12.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sh1ro?window=all) | 12.4K | 229.54% ±23.7 | +12.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,161 | $502 | 11.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,358 | $208 | 9.8% | 8 | 2.8 | 2.82× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 4,055 | $199 | 10.1% | 12 | 3.1 | 3.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,672 | $162 | 12.5% | 15 | 4.6 | 3.24× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,182 | $116 | 20.2% | 34 | 10.5 | 3.25× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,042 | $110 | 21.8% | 30 | 11.9 | 2.52× | | [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) | 20.7% | $0.08 | 3.6% | 1,553 | 2563.8 | 0.61× | | [XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-field-tested) | 19.1% | $0.08 | 3.0% | 1,706 | 2358.3 | 0.72× | | [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) | 18.2% | $0.07 | 2.7% | 602 | 2246.8 | 0.27× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 15.7% | $0.06 | 2.1% | 1,820 | 1947.2 | 0.93× | | [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-field-tested) | 14.1% | $0.06 | 1.7% | 1,832 | 1741.6 | 1.05× | | [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.05 | 1.2% | 1,515 | 1487.1 | 1.02× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Stalker](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Stalker) $0.67 $506 755.2x 2026-11-03 16:12 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $505 754.4x 2026-11-03 00:47 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $502 749.3x 2026-11-11 08:32 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $222 331.0x 2026-11-03 03:39 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $221 329.7x 2026-11-03 01:52 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $220 328.4x 2026-11-07 12:51 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $215 320.4x 2026-11-03 08:32 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [JPCadeirante-.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/JPCadeirante-.) $0.67 $214 319.4x 2026-11-03 08:42 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) [batya](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/batya) $0.67 $214 319.3x 2026-11-05 23:16 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [SniG\_DP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SniG_DP) $0.67 $213 318.0x 2026-11-09 15:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=sh1ro) [Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) [warcraft.forever17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/warcraft.forever17) $0.67 $0.07 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [XM1014 | Mockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.08 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.06 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.06 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) [DRAGon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DRAGon) $0.67 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.09 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.06 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.09 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [XM1014 | Mockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-mockingbird-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.08 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $0.67 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 72.38% | 12 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.20% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.21% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 72.46% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 72.77% | 12 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.79% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.78% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.77% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 72.87% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 73.28% | 12 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 73.27% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.33% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.29% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.27% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.32% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 73.24% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.34% | 12 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 73.67% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 73.73% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.62% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.31% | 12 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.43% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 73.37% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 73.40% | 12 | | 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.67 | 73.34% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.1% milspec 34.8% #4b69ff 46.8% blue 18.2% best hit $506 (755.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 72.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $72.38 on average: an expected loss of $27.62 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt