---
title: "Shadow Case case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Shadow Case ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.01% from 14 items with odds, observed 71.20% over 111 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Shadow Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Shadow Case

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow?window=all)

Price · $3.39

Advertised RTP · 76.01% · EV $2.58 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.20% · 111 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 43.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 26 openings · below min

7 days · 82 openings · below min

30 days · 71.20% ±18.97 111 openings

since tracking started · 71.20% ±18.97 111 openings

50.5% 92.5% 134.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow?window=24h) | 26 | 92.51% ±41.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow?window=7d) | 82 | 76.89% ±22.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow) | 111 | 71.20% ±19.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shadow?window=all) | 111 | 71.20% ±19.0 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,476 | $127 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,352 | $86.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 5,668 | $78.61 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 3,792 | $60.93 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 3,285 | $56.56 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 3,274 | $56.47 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 2,567 | $50.34 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,370 | $38.76 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $15.56 | 5.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $8.54 | 14.7% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $6.58 | 20.7% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 30.0% | $1.88 | 21.9% | 5 | 33.3 | 0.15× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 28.7% | $1.53 | 17.1% | 2 | 31.9 | 0.06× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 27.5% | $1.37 | 14.6% | 35 | 30.6 | 1.15× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=shadow)

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $6.59 1.94x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $1.32 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $1.32 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $2.58 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $2.58 0.76x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $1.53 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $1.32 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $8.32 2.45x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $15.38 4.54x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) [Rico](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Rico) $3.39 $1.53 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 76.01% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.87% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.81% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.17% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.37% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.44% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.38% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.49% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.49% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.93% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.93% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.98% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 77.05% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.92% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.82% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.32% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.28% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.34% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.09% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.11% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.14% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $3.39 | 77.01% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% gold 0.1% Immortal 0.0% classified 0.9% #d32ee6 12.6% violet 30.0% restricted 28.7% Mythical 27.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.01 on average: an expected loss of $23.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt