---
title: "Shiba case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Shiba ($7.49) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.66% from 32 items with odds, observed 76.34% over 2,115 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Shiba](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Shiba

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba?window=all)

Price · $7.49

Advertised RTP · 76.66% · EV $5.74 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.34% · 2,115 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.58% ±6.58 388 openings

7 days · 76.25% ±3.06 1,836 openings

30 days · 76.34% ±2.86 2,115 openings

since tracking started · 76.34% ±2.86 2,115 openings

69.5% 76.8% 84.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba?window=24h) | 388 | 76.58% ±6.58 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba?window=7d) | 1,836 | 76.25% ±3.06 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba) | 2,115 | 76.34% ±2.86 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/shiba?window=all) | 2,115 | 76.34% ±2.86 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92,158 | $208 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 69,352 | $177 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,839 | $116 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 22,546 | $110 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13,817 | $91.77 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 7,924 | $75.38 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,958 | $68.27 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 4,284 | $60.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 1,269 | $40.17 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,147 | $38.80 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $38.24 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 690 | $32.57 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 647 | $31.85 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 583 | $30.73 | 0.9% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 568 | $30.45 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 475 | $28.62 | 1.0% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 288 | $24.00 | 1.5% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 273 | $23.58 | 1.5% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.42× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $19.36 | 2.1% | 17 | 13.4 | 1.27× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $12.25 | 4.4% | 45 | 44.0 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $12.01 | 4.6% | 41 | 46.2 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $11.63 | 4.8% | 48 | 49.8 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $11.08 | 5.1% | 82 | 55.8 | 1.47× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $10.15 | 5.7% | 75 | 68.0 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.49 | 8.3% | 179 | 156.5 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $6.44 | 8.4% | 122 | 158.0 | 0.77× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $5.68 | 8.7% | 201 | 187.4 | 1.07× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 11.2% | $4.47 | 8.7% | 8 | 237.2 | 0.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 11.6% | $4.26 | 8.6% | 222 | 245.1 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 12.7% | $3.46 | 7.7% | 263 | 269.4 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 13.0% | $2.91 | 6.6% | 248 | 275.4 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 12.9% | $2.74 | 6.2% | 200 | 274.5 | 0.73× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=shiba)

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $24.06 3.21x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $5.69 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $7.49 $4.47 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $6.47 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $2.70 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $23.51 3.14x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $2.70 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [The oNe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/The%20oNe) $7.49 $6.47 0.86x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [The oNe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/The%20oNe) $7.49 $3.56 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) [Жулик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BA) $7.49 $23.51 3.14x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $7.49 | 76.66% | 32 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $7.49 | 76.51% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $7.49 | 76.48% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $7.49 | 76.76% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $7.49 | 77.12% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $7.49 | 77.12% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $7.49 | 77.09% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $7.49 | 77.15% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $7.49 | 77.21% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.49 | 77.66% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $7.49 | 77.64% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $7.49 | 77.61% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $7.49 | 77.63% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $7.49 | 77.64% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $7.49 | 77.65% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $7.49 | 77.65% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $7.49 | 77.64% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $7.49 | 77.64% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $7.49 | 77.63% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $7.49 | 77.63% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $7.49 | 77.58% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.67% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $7.49 | 78.08% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $7.49 | 78.06% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.95% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.66% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.75% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.49 | 77.75% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $7.49 | 77.74% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $7.49 | 77.71% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% classified 24.8% extraordinary 0.1% Ancient 0.5% red 0.2% pink 24.5% restricted 25.7% Legendary 23.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.66 on average: an expected loss of $23.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt