---
title: "Sirens case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sirens ($0.21) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 74.05% from 32 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Sirens](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Sirens

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens?window=all)

Price · $0.21

Advertised RTP · 74.05% · EV $0.16 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/sirens?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199,934 | $114 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 198,039 | $36.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 193,659 | $24.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 188,259 | $19.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 188,023 | $19.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 179,232 | $16.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 44,269 | $5.18 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 16,602 | $3.53 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Gila (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-gila-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,966 | $3.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,277 | $2.64 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,180 | $2.34 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,706 | $2.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 1,522 | $1.54 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-well-worn) | 1 in 617 | $1.13 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 526 | $1.07 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 132 | $0.66 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $0.55 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $0.44 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Sonar (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sonar-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.42 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.41 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.40 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.36 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.36 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.32 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.29 | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.09 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 15.2% | $0.06 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-field-tested) | 14.3% | $0.05 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.03 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Army Recon (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.02 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.02 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | \<$0.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=sirens)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.21 | 74.05% | 32 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 73.97% | 32 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 73.69% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 73.73% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 74.06% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 74.33% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.40% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.31% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.28% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 74.40% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 74.87% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 74.90% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 74.90% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.86% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.95% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 74.84% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.84% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.86% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.77% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.81% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.93% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 74.83% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.95% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 75.30% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 75.24% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.21% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 74.92% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.00% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 75.03% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 74.89% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% restricted 3.0% Mythical 0.0% violet 3.7% blue 8.9% mil spec 3.8% milspec 36.5% #8847ff 3.6% #4b69ff 18.0% consumer 10.8% #777777 6.2% Consumer 5.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $74.05 on average: an expected loss of $25.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt