---
title: "Small Arms Charms case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Small Arms Charms ($0.13) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 71.80% from 15 items with odds, observed 78.62% over 4,515 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Small Arms Charms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Small Arms Charms

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms?window=all)

Price · $0.13

Advertised RTP · 71.80% · EV $0.09 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.62% · 4,515 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 35.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 73.57% ±9.52 419 openings

7 days · 78.15% ±3.28 3,441 openings

30 days · 78.62% ±2.89 4,515 openings

since tracking started · 78.62% ±2.89 4,515 openings

63.5% 73.5% 83.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 72.43% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.73% – 81.51%, 4,515 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms?window=24h) | 419 | 73.57% ±9.52 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms?window=7d) | 3,441 | 78.15% ±3.28 | +3.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms) | 4,515 | 78.62% ±2.89 | +4.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/smallarmscharms?window=all) | 4,515 | 78.62% ±2.89 | +4.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,519 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 9,945 | $8.64 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 9,896 | $6.95 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 8,730 | $2.90 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 7,709 | $2.28 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 3,029 | $1.15 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.01× |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 575 | $0.59 | 1.1% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 360 | $0.50 | 1.5% | 26 | 12.5 | 2.07× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 154 | $0.37 | 2.6% | 40 | 29.3 | 1.36× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 93 | $0.31 | 3.6% | 60 | 48.8 | 1.23× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 15 | $0.15 | 10.7% | 218 | 302.8 | 0.72× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 11.7% | $0.11 | 14.1% | 476 | 529.7 | 0.90× |
| [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 14.4% | $0.10 | 15.2% | 464 | 648.5 | 0.72× |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 20.5% | $0.07 | 16.2% | 886 | 925.6 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 21.0% | $0.07 | 16.4% | 1,210 | 948.6 | 1.28× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 23.5% | $0.06 | 15.9% | 1,123 | 1061.7 | 1.06× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Charm | Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) [Fonar'](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Fonar') $0.13 $8.62 66.31x 2026-11-06 16:01 UTC

[Charm | Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) [Замурррчательный](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%D1%80%D1%80%D1%87%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9) $0.13 $7.52 57.85x 2026-11-07 16:46 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=smallarmscharms)

[Charm | Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) [AlexMarch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/AlexMarch) $0.13 $0.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [BAAKENZI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BAAKENZI) $0.13 $0.07 0.56x 2026-11-11 19:16 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) [kkk11rkaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kkk11rkaa) $0.13 $0.07 0.57x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [kkk11rkaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kkk11rkaa) $0.13 $0.11 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

[Charm | Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) [kkk11rkaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kkk11rkaa) $0.13 $0.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC

[Charm | Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) [kkk11rkaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kkk11rkaa) $0.13 $0.07 0.51x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[Charm | Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) [kkk11rkaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kkk11rkaa) $0.13 $0.11 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [.Дед Алексей](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/.%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%B4%20%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9) $0.13 $0.07 0.56x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Charm | Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) [.Дед Алексей](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/.%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%B4%20%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9) $0.13 $0.11 0.84x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [.Дед Алексей](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/.%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%B4%20%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B5%D0%B9) $0.13 $0.07 0.56x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.13 | 71.80% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.13 | 71.67% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.61% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.23% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.13 | 71.81% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.13 | 71.95% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.13 | 71.96% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.13 | 71.86% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.28% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.13 | 72.00% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.13 | 72.60% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.13 | 72.33% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.13 | 72.42% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.64% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.39% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.13 | 72.68% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.38% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.59% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.48% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.52% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.50% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.13 | 72.40% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.76% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.13 | 72.84% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.13 | 73.07% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.65% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.61% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.68% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.13 | 72.63% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.13 | 72.80% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% Legendary 0.0% #8847ff 0.9% #d32ce6 0.0% uncommon 1.3% Rare 74.2% #4b69ff 23.5% best hit $8.62 (66.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.80 on average: an expected loss of $28.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt