---
title: "Spicy mining case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Spicy mining ($0.10) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 61.23% from 10 items with odds, observed 359.83% over 770 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Spicy mining](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Spicy mining

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining?window=all)

Price · $0.10

Advertised RTP · 61.23% · EV $0.06 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 359.83% · 770 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83 openings · below min

7 days · 367.89% ±11.24 649 openings

30 days · 359.83% ±10.26 770 openings

since tracking started · 359.83% ±10.26 770 openings

60.5% 246.5% 432.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 62.07% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (349.57% – 370.10%, 770 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining?window=24h) | 83 | 399.57% ±32.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining?window=7d) | 649 | 367.89% ±11.2 | +53.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining) | 770 | 359.83% ±10.3 | +56.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spicymining?window=all) | 770 | 359.83% ±10.3 | +56.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 772 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 7,939 | $4.15 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.1 | — |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,753 | $3.72 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 2,866 | $2.93 | 1.7% | 3 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) | 15.1% | $0.35 | 85.8% | 741 | 116.5 | 6.36× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-colony-field-tested) | 22.8% | $0.01 | 4.1% | 0 | 175.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-minimal-wear) | 19.4% | \<$0.01 | 2.8% | 0 | 149.4 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Grey Smoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-grey-smoke-minimal-wear) | 11.7% | \<$0.01 | 1.1% | 0 | 90.5 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-palm-field-tested) | 10.3% | \<$0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 79.7 | 0.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Short Ochre (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-short-ochre-field-tested) | 10.3% | \<$0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 79.7 | 0.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Red Jasper (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-red-jasper-field-tested) | 10.3% | \<$0.01 | 0.8% | 0 | 79.7 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=spicymining)

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [VPOPIK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VPOPIK) $0.10 $0.35 3.47x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [A para né Pedrinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/A%20para%20n%C3%A9%20Pedrinho) $0.10 $0.35 3.47x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [nazartyson | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nazartyson%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $0.10 $0.35 3.47x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [Insite644](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Insite644) $0.10 $0.35 3.47x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [obsession](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/obsession) $0.10 $0.35 3.48x 2026-11-11 10:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [gladiolus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/gladiolus) $0.10 $0.35 3.48x 2026-11-11 10:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [Respect´](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Respect%C2%B4) $0.10 $0.35 3.48x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [Sifma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Sifma) $0.10 $0.35 3.48x 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [Калина Спорт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%A1%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82) $0.10 $0.35 3.47x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-field-tested) [Калина Спорт](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%A1%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82) $0.10 $0.35 3.47x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.10 | 61.23% | 10 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.10 | 61.18% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.10 | 61.17% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.10 | 61.55% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.10 | 61.75% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.10 | 61.69% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.10 | 61.59% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.10 | 61.77% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.10 | 61.69% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.10 | 62.02% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.10 | 62.02% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.10 | 62.00% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.10 | 62.06% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.10 | 62.12% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.10 | 62.19% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 62.20% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 62.09% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.10 | 62.11% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.10 | 62.03% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.10 | 62.12% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.10 | 62.08% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.10 | 62.22% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.10 | 62.39% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.10 | 62.37% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.10 | 62.47% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.10 | 62.30% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.10 | 62.24% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.10 | 62.22% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.10 | 62.07% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.10 | 62.09% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Legendary 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% violet 15.1% #777777 22.8% consumer 29.7% gray 11.7% #b0c3d9 10.3% Common 10.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 61.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $61.23 on average: an expected loss of $38.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt