---
title: "Человек-паук: Новый день case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Человек-паук: Новый день ($0.23) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 81.02% from 29 items with odds, observed 89.43% over 1,226 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Человек-паук: Новый день](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Человек-паук: Новый день

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman?window=all)

Price · $0.23

Advertised RTP · 81.02% · EV $0.19 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.43% · 1,226 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.32% ±16.40 117 openings

7 days · 88.80% ±5.40 1,030 openings

30 days · 89.43% ±4.94 1,226 openings

since tracking started · 89.43% ±4.94 1,226 openings

80.0% 97.8% 115.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 81.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.49% – 94.36%, 1,226 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman?window=24h) | 117 | 98.32% ±16.4 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman?window=7d) | 1,030 | 88.80% ±5.40 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman) | 1,226 | 89.43% ±4.94 | +3.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/spiderman?window=all) | 1,226 | 89.43% ±4.94 | +3.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 9,716 | $8.71 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 9,624 | $7.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 8,748 | $5.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,731 | $5.10 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 7,040 | $3.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 6,962 | $3.53 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 4,330 | $2.45 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 3,941 | $2.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-field-tested) | 1 in 2,361 | $1.80 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Charm \| Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) | 1 in 2,311 | $1.79 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,095 | $1.71 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 1,100 | $1.32 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 583 | $1.05 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 549 | $1.02 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 355 | $0.87 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $0.76 | 1.7% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $0.72 | 1.8% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $0.67 | 2.1% | 1 | 7.2 | 0.14× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $0.56 | 2.9% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| [Charm \| Big Brain charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-brain) | 1 in 78 | $0.50 | 3.4% | 22 | 15.7 | 1.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.34 | 5.9% | 53 | 39.5 | 1.34× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.25 | 8.4% | 125 | 77.7 | 1.61× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 9.5% | 22 | 102.9 | 0.21× |
| [FAMAS \| 2A2F (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-2a2f-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 9.5% | 112 | 105.2 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 10.6% | $0.18 | 10.1% | 86 | 129.4 | 0.66× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 13.6% | $0.14 | 10.0% | 140 | 166.1 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.13 | 10.0% | 144 | 169.7 | 0.85× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-well-worn) | 15.2% | $0.11 | 8.8% | 87 | 186.9 | 0.47× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Vino charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-vino) | 15.6% | $0.09 | 7.9% | 162 | 190.8 | 0.85× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=spiderman)

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.26 1.11x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.13 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Vino charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-vino) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.09 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.26 1.11x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Vino charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-vino) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.09 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.13 0.58x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.26 1.11x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Vino charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-vino) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.09 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.18 0.78x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-well-worn) [Kalleser](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kalleser) $0.23 $0.30 1.33x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.23 | 81.02% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.23 | 80.86% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.23 | 80.67% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.23 | 80.63% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.23 | 80.98% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.23 | 81.37% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.23 | 81.34% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.23 | 81.28% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.23 | 81.38% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.23 | 81.39% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.23 | 82.01% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.23 | 81.98% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.23 | 81.97% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.23 | 81.92% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.23 | 81.94% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.23 | 81.94% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.23 | 81.95% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.23 | 81.90% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.23 | 81.88% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.23 | 81.85% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.23 | 81.94% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.23 | 81.77% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.23 | 81.91% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.23 | 82.38% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.23 | 82.34% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.23 | 82.30% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.23 | 81.90% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.23 | 82.03% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.23 | 82.05% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.23 | 82.03% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed violet 3.4% pink 0.0% classified 0.0% mil spec 0.5% Industrial 0.0% Legendary 0.0% #8847ff 1.9% restricted 7.6% Mythical 0.5% Restricted 0.1% #4b69ff 32.8% common 10.6% blue 13.6% Rare 13.8% milspec 15.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 81.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.02 on average: an expected loss of $18.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt