---
title: "Tesla Roadster case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tesla Roadster ($26.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.62% from 29 items with odds, observed 78.41% over 5,207 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Tesla Roadster](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Tesla Roadster

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster?window=all)

Price · $26.99

Advertised RTP · 76.62% · EV $20.68 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.41% · 5,207 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.58% ±4.64 968 openings

7 days · 78.46% ±2.16 4,504 openings

30 days · 78.41% ±2.01 5,207 openings

since tracking started · 78.41% ±2.01 5,207 openings

74.5% 79.8% 85.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster?window=24h) | 968 | 79.58% ±4.64 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster?window=7d) | 4,504 | 78.46% ±2.16 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster) | 5,207 | 78.41% ±2.01 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/teslaroadster?window=all) | 5,207 | 78.41% ±2.01 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,220 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 9,644 | $794 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 9,519 | $716 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,015 | $553 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 8,638 | $489 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 8,100 | $429 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-field-tested) | 1 in 7,250 | $365 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,117 | $268 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-field-tested) | 1 in 3,562 | $216 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,170 | $204 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-field-tested) | 1 in 1,965 | $164 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,885 | $162 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 799 | $116 | 0.7% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 533 | $99.71 | 0.9% | 3 | 9.8 | 0.31× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 270 | $77.97 | 1.4% | 22 | 19.3 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 243 | $75.08 | 1.5% | 15 | 21.4 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $60.93 | 2.1% | 39 | 38.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $43.24 | 3.7% | 106 | 93.3 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $38.24 | 4.5% | 120 | 126.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $35.04 | 5.0% | 157 | 155.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $34.37 | 5.2% | 105 | 162.0 | 0.65× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $30.45 | 6.0% | 185 | 211.8 | 0.87× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Eldritch charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-eldritch) | 1 in 18 | $26.19 | 7.0% | 296 | 287.7 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $24.00 | 7.5% | 317 | 338.1 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $21.05 | 8.2% | 395 | 420.3 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 10.5% | $17.39 | 8.8% | 516 | 545.5 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) | 12.4% | $14.72 | 8.8% | 649 | 645.5 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 12.6% | $14.35 | 8.8% | 645 | 659.1 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $12.25 | 8.3% | 751 | 729.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 14.1% | $11.95 | 8.2% | 706 | 737.8 | 0.96× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/777) $26.99 $821 30.42x 2026-11-07 01:25 UTC

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $26.99 $799 29.61x 2026-11-10 15:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) [DOTEX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DOTEX) $26.99 $720 26.66x 2026-11-09 22:19 UTC

[★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Ведьмак 3: Крепкая охота](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%92%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%8C%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BA%203%3A%20%D0%9A%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F%20%D0%BE%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B0) $26.99 $561 20.78x 2026-11-09 15:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=teslaroadster)

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [Marinette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Marinette) $26.99 $30.22 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) [Din Djarin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Din%20Djarin) $26.99 $14.87 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-field-tested) [Marinette](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Marinette) $26.99 $20.40 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Din Djarin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Din%20Djarin) $26.99 $17.26 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) [What's up man](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/What's%20up%20man) $26.99 $14.87 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [ANTISOCIAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/ANTISOCIAL) $26.99 $11.97 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $26.99 $17.26 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) [RK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RK) $26.99 $43.29 1.60x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-field-tested) [Insite644](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Insite644) $26.99 $14.87 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AWP | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) [Insite644](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Insite644) $26.99 $36.49 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $26.99 | 76.62% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.45% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.43% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $26.99 | 76.72% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $26.99 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.07% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.05% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.12% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $26.99 | 77.19% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $26.99 | 77.62% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $26.99 | 77.59% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $26.99 | 77.58% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.59% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $26.99 | 77.54% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.66% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $26.99 | 78.01% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $26.99 | 78.03% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.93% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.71% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $26.99 | 77.70% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $26.99 | 77.71% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $26.99 | 77.68% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.0% extraordinary 0.0% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.0% epic 0.0% red 5.2% classified 48.1% Ancient 5.5% uncommon 8.1% Classified 12.4% pink 12.6% best hit $821 (30.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.62 on average: an expected loss of $23.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt