---
title: "Tether case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tether ($449.00) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.80% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.10% over 19 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Tether](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Tether

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether?window=all)

Price · $449.00

Advertised RTP · 76.80% · EV $344.84 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.10% · 19 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 17 openings · below min

30 days · 19 openings · below min

since tracking started · 19 openings · below min

-0.5% 54.5% 109.5%

**Small sample.** 19 openings and 7.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether?window=24h) | 3 | 42.48% ±49.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether?window=7d) | 17 | 87.55% ±21.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether) | 19 | 88.10% ±20.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/tether?window=all) | 19 | 88.10% ±20.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 3,246 | $3,271 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 759 | $1,993 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 121 | $1,050 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $1,016 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $931 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $865 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $667 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $584 | 6.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $567 | 6.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $533 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $424 | 9.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $330 | 10.8% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 11.4% | $329 | 10.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 12.1% | $315 | 11.1% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 18.8% | $191 | 10.4% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 19.5% | $169 | 9.6% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $1,072 2.39x 2026-11-09 04:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $449 $868 1.93x 2026-11-09 16:18 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) [4u\_4u\_ga\_ga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4u_4u_ga_ga) $449 $576 1.28x 2026-11-08 20:45 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [Nikrul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Nikrul) $449 $559 1.25x 2026-11-05 17:52 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) [max\_lemos](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/max_lemos) $449 $543 1.21x 2026-11-03 18:40 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $522 1.16x 2026-11-09 04:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=tether)

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [MPC TURN OFF CAPS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/MPC%20TURN%20OFF%20CAPS) $449 $191 0.42x 2026-11-11 02:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $191 0.42x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC

[M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $191 0.42x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $449 $868 1.93x 2026-11-09 16:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) [q](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/q) $449 $341 0.76x 2026-11-09 16:18 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $522 1.16x 2026-11-09 04:27 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Lore knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $159 0.35x 2026-11-09 04:26 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [VLIQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VLIQ) $449 $1,072 2.39x 2026-11-09 04:18 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) [4u\_4u\_ga\_ga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4u_4u_ga_ga) $449 $576 1.28x 2026-11-08 20:45 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) [4u\_4u\_ga\_ga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/4u_4u_ga_ga) $449 $314 0.70x 2026-11-08 20:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $449 | 76.80% | 16 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $449 | 76.63% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $449 | 76.61% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $449 | 76.90% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $449 | 77.24% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $449 | 77.25% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $449 | 77.23% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $449 | 77.30% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $449 | 77.36% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $449 | 77.80% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $449 | 77.77% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $449 | 77.76% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $449 | 77.79% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $449 | 77.79% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $449 | 77.79% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $449 | 77.80% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $449 | 77.77% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $449 | 77.78% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $449 | 77.79% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $449 | 77.79% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $449 | 77.72% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $449 | 77.84% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $449 | 78.20% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $449 | 78.21% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $449 | 78.11% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $449 | 77.80% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $449 | 77.89% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $449 | 77.88% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $449 | 77.89% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $449 | 77.86% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 12.8% extraordinary 5.0% #ffd700 0.8% covert 7.6% restricted 35.4% red 18.8% sunny 19.5% best hit $1,072 (2.39x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.80 on average: an expected loss of $23.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt