---
title: "2021 Mirage case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "2021 Mirage ($4.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.56% from 18 items with odds, observed 106.03% over 14 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [2021 Mirage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · 2021 Mirage

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection?window=all)

Price · $4.09

Advertised RTP · 75.56% · EV $3.09 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 106.03% · 14 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 11 openings · below min

30 days · 14 openings · below min

since tracking started · 14 openings · below min

38.5% 116.5% 194.5%

**Small sample.** 14 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection?window=7d) | 11 | 118.60% ±75.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection) | 14 | 106.03% ±66.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021miragecollection?window=all) | 14 | 106.03% ±66.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 189,234 | $904 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 17,573 | $159 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $22.33 | 11.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $18.73 | 15.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $17.00 | 17.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 19.7% | $2.55 | 16.3% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 18.2% | $2.21 | 13.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 18.0% | $2.17 | 12.6% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) | 17.5% | $2.09 | 11.9% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Drift Wood (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.37 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [FAMAS \| CaliCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.32 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P90 \| Verdant Growth (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.28 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Anolis (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-anolis-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Prey (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-prey-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $0.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Navy Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Drought (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $0.11 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=the2021miragecollection)

[M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) [SCRAGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SCRAGA) $4.09 $2.08 0.51x 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) [Br1ght](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Br1ght) $4.09 $2.48 0.61x 2026-11-10 13:58 UTC

[SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [Br1ght](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Br1ght) $4.09 $2.18 0.53x 2026-11-10 13:57 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) [kingsli](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/kingsli) $4.09 $2.48 0.61x 2026-11-10 08:16 UTC

[MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) [s1mpala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/s1mpala) $4.09 $2.09 0.51x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[MP9 | Music Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-field-tested) [Khanzor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Khanzor) $4.09 $2.08 0.51x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC

[USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) [nonyamis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nonyamis) $4.09 $2.50 0.61x 2026-11-07 19:14 UTC

[M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-field-tested) [SniG\_DP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SniG_DP) $4.09 $2.14 0.52x 2026-11-06 12:36 UTC

[XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) [camry3.5t](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/camry3.5t) $4.09 $16.45 4.02x 2026-11-06 10:56 UTC

[XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-field-tested) [DonFeromon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/DonFeromon) $4.09 $16.36 4.00x 2026-11-06 05:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 00:45 UTC | $4.09 | 75.56% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.09 | 75.85% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 75.62% | 18 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.45% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.46% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.73% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 76.09% | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.09% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.14% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.17% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 76.56% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.55% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.60% | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 76.98% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 76.97% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.90% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.73% | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.71% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 1.6% Restricted 2.5% violet 3.2% blue 55.5% Rare 18.0% Uncommon 3.7% #87c7ff 3.2% industrial 6.0% other 2.6% Common 2.5% gray 1.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.56 on average: an expected loss of $24.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt