---
title: "2021 Train case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "2021 Train ($5.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.77% from 17 items with odds, observed 70.68% over 31 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [2021 Train](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · 2021 Train

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection?window=all)

Price · $5.39

Advertised RTP · 76.77% · EV $4.14 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 70.68% · 31 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 31 openings · below min

30 days · 31 openings · below min

since tracking started · 31 openings · below min

8.5% 53.3% 98.0%

**Small sample.** 31 openings and 9.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection?window=24h) | 11 | 52.71% ±43.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection?window=7d) | 31 | 70.68% ±26.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection) | 31 | 70.68% ±26.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/the2021traincollection?window=all) | 31 | 70.68% ±26.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 19,294 | $135 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,065 | $70.73 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 364 | $33.87 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $27.89 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $24.40 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $8.20 | 14.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $7.24 | 14.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $5.86 | 14.1% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [Nova \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-field-tested) | 10.3% | $5.46 | 13.7% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 11.1% | $4.26 | 11.5% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.16× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $2.51 | 5.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× |
| [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.00 | 4.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.66 | 3.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.54 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.48 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.38 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.37 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.54× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=the2021traincollection)

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $1.48 0.27x 2026-11-11 08:43 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $1.48 0.27x 2026-11-11 08:43 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $4.16 0.77x 2026-11-11 08:43 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $1.54 0.29x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $4.16 0.77x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $1.39 0.26x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $2.58 0.48x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $5.85 1.09x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $5.85 1.09x 2026-11-11 08:41 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $5.39 $1.39 0.26x 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $5.39 | 76.77% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.39 | 76.56% | 17 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.41% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.38% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.39 | 76.68% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.39 | 77.01% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.04% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.02% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.06% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.39 | 77.13% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.39 | 77.61% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.39 | 77.55% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.39 | 77.54% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.56% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.39 | 77.58% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.57% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.51% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.57% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.56% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.54% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.39 | 77.49% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.64% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.39 | 77.99% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.39 | 77.97% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.90% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.59% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.66% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.39 | 77.65% | 17 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.39 | 77.68% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 1.0% #d32ee6 0.5% restricted 15.4% violet 9.9% Restricted 21.5% mil spec 9.7% blue 21.7% Rare 7.4% milspec 6.7% Mil Spec Grade 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.77 on average: an expected loss of $23.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt