---
title: "The Achroma Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Achroma Collection ($0.93) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 78.95% from 20 items with odds, observed 98.43% over 98 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Achroma Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Achroma Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection?window=all)

Price · $0.93

Advertised RTP · 78.95% · EV $0.73 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.43% · 98 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 74 openings · below min

30 days · 98 openings · below min

since tracking started · 98 openings · below min

29.5% 77.5% 125.5%

**Small sample.** 98 openings and 19.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection?window=24h) | 15 | 77.34% ±47.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection?window=7d) | 74 | 101.81% ±21.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection) | 98 | 98.43% ±18.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theachromacollection?window=all) | 98 | 98.43% ±18.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $8.35 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 18.9% | $1.88 | 48.4% | 17 | 19.3 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) | 34.9% | $0.83 | 39.4% | 46 | 35.6 | 1.29× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.14 | 1.9% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 1.5% | 4 | 9.1 | 0.44× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.12 | 1.4% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.56× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.11 | 1.3% | 3 | 8.6 | 0.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Vendetta (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sans Comic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sans-comic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M249 \| Sleet (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sleet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-silver-pour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-thermal-currents-minimal-wear) | 1 in 229 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-minimal-wear) | 1 in 259 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Sleet (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sleet-field-tested) | 1 in 259 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) | 1 in 259 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bizoom-well-worn) | 1 in 259 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=theachromacollection)

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) [xco5](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/xco5) $0.93 $0.82 0.88x 2026-11-11 09:09 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) [Fetus\_Deletus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Fetus_Deletus) $0.93 $0.16 0.17x 2026-11-10 22:17 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) [Tein\_Kasrkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tein_Kasrkin) $0.93 $0.16 0.17x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) [Tein\_Kasrkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Tein_Kasrkin) $0.93 $1.88 2.02x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC

[AUG | Creep (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-field-tested) [lifeiscockandballstorture](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/lifeiscockandballstorture) $0.93 $0.14 0.15x 2026-11-10 22:16 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) [lifeiscockandballstorture](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/lifeiscockandballstorture) $0.93 $0.16 0.17x 2026-11-10 22:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) [ГОБЛИН ДРАЧУН](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%9E%D0%91%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%9D%20%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%90%D0%A7%D0%A3%D0%9D) $0.93 $0.82 0.88x 2026-11-10 22:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-field-tested) [ГОБЛИН ДРАЧУН](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%93%D0%9E%D0%91%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%9D%20%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%90%D0%A7%D0%A3%D0%9D) $0.93 $0.16 0.17x 2026-11-10 22:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) [Я Любить Картошка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%AF%20%D0%9B%D1%8E%D0%B1%D0%B8%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.93 $0.82 0.88x 2026-11-10 22:14 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-field-tested) [Дай попу понюхать](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%94%D0%B0%D0%B9%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BD%D1%8E%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C) $0.93 $0.82 0.88x 2026-11-10 22:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.93 | 78.95% | 20 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.50% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.93 | 78.61% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.93 | 79.12% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.93 | 79.35% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.38% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.31% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.35% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.93 | 79.36% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.93 | 79.86% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.93 | 79.94% | 20 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.93 | 79.89% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.93% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.94% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.93 | 79.85% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.93 | 80.13% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.88% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.93 | 80.02% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.79% | 20 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.98% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.93 | 79.68% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.84% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.93 | 80.34% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.93 | 80.21% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.15% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.01% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.93 | 79.94% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.93 | 80.05% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.93 | 80.13% | 20 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.93 | 80.06% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.5% #8847ff 53.8% milspec 18.9% #4b69ff 17.4% Uncommon 2.3% industrial 3.0% #5e98d9 0.8% Common 0.9% #b0c3d9 1.6% consumer 0.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 79.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.95 on average: an expected loss of $21.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt