--- title: "Ancient case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ancient ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.15% from 18 items with odds, observed 91.74% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection rendered: 2026-11-11T18:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Ancient A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection?window=all) Price · $3.39 Advertised RTP · 76.15% · EV $2.58 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.74% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 135.3% 271.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection?window=24h) | 1 | 91.74% ±178.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection?window=7d) | 1 | 91.74% ±178.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection) | 1 | 91.74% ±178.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theancientcollection?window=all) | 1 | 91.74% ±178.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 197,626 | $796 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-well-worn) | 1 in 52,313 | $129 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-field-tested) | 1 in 1,199 | $32.85 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [XM1014 \| Ancient Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ancient-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 469 | $23.78 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 428 | $23.05 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $10.35 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $8.25 | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.41 | 14.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) | 13.5% | $3.29 | 17.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-field-tested) | 14.6% | $1.98 | 11.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Field-Tested) weapon · #d2d2d2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-field-tested) | 14.5% | $1.95 | 11.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-silver-minimal-wear) | 14.3% | $1.83 | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) | 13.8% | $1.67 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.40 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ancient-earth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.36 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=theancientcollection) [Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-field-tested) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $3.39 $3.11 0.92x 2026-11-11 08:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.15% | 18 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 75.98% | 18 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.80% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.79% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.13% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.40% | 18 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.39% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.40% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.44% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.53% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.91% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.91% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.95% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 18 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.87% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.39% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.35% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.27% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.02% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.09% | 18 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.05% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% restricted 0.1% Restricted 0.4% Rare 2.1% #4b69ff 22.9% blueLight 14.6% #d2d2d2 14.5% #87c7ff 14.3% Industrial Grade 13.8% Consumer Grade 7.3% gray 7.0% grey 3.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.15 on average: an expected loss of $23.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt