---
title: "The Arabesque Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Arabesque Collection ($2.09) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.56% over 119 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Arabesque Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Arabesque Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection?window=all)

Price · $2.09

Advertised RTP · 73.99% · EV $1.55 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.56% · 119 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 46.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 92.05% ±17.55 106 openings

30 days · 89.56% ±16.55 119 openings

since tracking started · 89.56% ±16.55 119 openings

49.0% 93.0% 137.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection?window=24h) | 18 | 93.05% ±43.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection?window=7d) | 106 | 92.05% ±17.5 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection) | 119 | 89.56% ±16.6 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thearabesquecollection?window=all) | 119 | 89.56% ±16.6 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-well-worn) | 1 in 8,676 | $82.33 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sovereign-flame-well-worn) | 1 in 8,331 | $75.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 404 | $15.10 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-well-worn) | 1 in 252 | $12.75 | 3.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-well-worn) | 16.2% | $2.58 | 27.0% | 17 | 19.6 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-well-worn) | 17.8% | $2.39 | 27.5% | 19 | 21.5 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-well-worn) | 18.5% | $2.30 | 27.5% | 0 | 22.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Snake Song (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-snake-song-field-tested) | 12.6% | $0.40 | 3.2% | 9 | 15.3 | 0.59× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sultan (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sultan-well-worn) | 12.5% | $0.39 | 3.1% | 9 | 15.1 | 0.60× |
| [MAC-10 \| Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-arabesque-mosaic-field-tested) | 11.8% | $0.37 | 2.8% | 9 | 14.3 | 0.63× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.30 | 1.9% | 2 | 12.0 | 0.17× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thearabesquecollection)

[MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-arabesque-mosaic-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $2.09 $0.37 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [Mashono4ka♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mashono4ka%E2%99%BF) $2.09 $2.42 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[P250 | Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) [TrackL1ght](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/TrackL1ght) $2.09 $2.42 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-lunar-wyrm-well-worn) [TrackL1ght](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/TrackL1ght) $2.09 $0.30 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sultan-well-worn) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $2.09 $0.36 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[Tec-9 | Sultan (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sultan-well-worn) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $2.09 $0.36 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $2.09 $2.97 1.42x 2026-11-11 05:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $2.09 $3.27 1.56x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $2.09 $3.27 1.56x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC

[FAMAS | Snake Song (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-snake-song-field-tested) [Mano Sem Dente™ \_CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Mano%20Sem%20Dente%E2%84%A2%20_CSGOSKINS) $2.09 $0.39 0.19x 2026-11-11 05:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.09 | 73.99% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.09 | 73.79% | 11 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.60% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.58% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.09 | 73.84% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.09 | 74.20% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.18% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.16% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.21% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.09 | 74.26% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.09 | 74.75% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.09 | 74.69% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.78% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.09 | 74.76% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.64% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.69% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.69% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.75% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.67% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.09 | 74.63% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.09 | 75.09% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.09 | 75.14% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.95% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.74% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.79% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.09 | 74.77% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% pink 0.6% violet 52.5% milspec 36.9% blue 9.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 74.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.99 on average: an expected loss of $26.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt