--- title: "The Ascent Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Ascent Collection ($0.40) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.28% from 6 items with odds, observed 99.87% over 254 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection rendered: 2026-11-11T18:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Ascent Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Ascent Collection A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection?window=all) Price · $0.40 Advertised RTP · 77.28% · EV $0.31 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.87% · 254 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 58 openings · below min 7 days · 98.54% ±13.32 214 openings 30 days · 99.87% ±12.20 254 openings since tracking started · 99.87% ±12.20 254 openings 67.0% 92.5% 118.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 77.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.67% – 112.08%, 254 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection?window=24h) | 58 | 92.37% ±24.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection?window=7d) | 214 | 98.54% ±13.3 | +3.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection) | 254 | 99.87% ±12.2 | +3.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theascentcollection?window=all) | 254 | 99.87% ±12.2 | +3.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 254 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $3.49 | 6.0% | 4 | 1.3 | 2.97× | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $2.34 | 12.2% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.71× | | [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 30.2% | $0.46 | 45.3% | 107 | 76.8 | 1.39× | | [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) | 25.8% | $0.20 | 16.5% | 33 | 65.4 | 0.50× | | [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-field-tested) | 21.2% | $0.15 | 10.3% | 49 | 53.8 | 0.91× | | [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 20.7% | $0.15 | 9.8% | 38 | 52.5 | 0.72× | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=theascentcollection) [FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-field-tested) [SEvER](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SEvER) $0.40 $0.14 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:36 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.46 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.46 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.46 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.19 0.47x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.19 0.47x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.46 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.14 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.14 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) [Xanthalax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Xanthalax) $0.40 $0.46 1.16x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.40 | 77.28% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 77.14% | 6 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.93% | 7 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.95% | 7 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 77.20% | 7 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 77.51% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.54% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.51% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.62% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.63% | 5 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 78.14% | 7 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 78.05% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 7 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.10% | 7 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.10% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 7 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 7 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.06% | 7 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.14% | 7 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 78.46% | 7 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 78.58% | 7 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.42% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.17% | 5 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.16% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.17% | 5 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 78.23% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.5% Mythical 1.6% uncommon 30.2% blue 25.8% milspec 41.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.28 on average: an expected loss of $22.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt