---
title: "The Boreal Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Boreal Collection ($0.48) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.83% from 5 items with odds, observed 88.42% over 211 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Boreal Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Boreal Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection?window=all)

Price · $0.48

Advertised RTP · 77.83% · EV $0.37 from 5 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.42% · 211 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 50.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 87.93% ±6.50 132 openings

30 days · 88.42% ±5.32 211 openings

since tracking started · 88.42% ±5.32 211 openings

35.5% 69.5% 103.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 78.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.10% – 93.74%, 211 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection?window=24h) | 5 | 69.50% ±33.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection?window=7d) | 132 | 87.93% ±6.50 | +2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection) | 211 | 88.42% ±5.32 | +3.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theborealcollection?window=all) | 211 | 88.42% ±5.32 | +3.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 3,299 | $5.84 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 11.3% | $0.62 | 18.8% | 33 | 23.9 | 1.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 15.2% | $0.55 | 22.4% | 51 | 32.2 | 1.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 23.4% | $0.44 | 27.5% | 38 | 49.3 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 50.0% | $0.23 | 30.8% | 83 | 105.5 | 0.79× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=theborealcollection)

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [CRISTINO RANADA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CRISTINO%20RANADA) $0.48 $0.55 1.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [Maybesome1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Maybesome1) $0.48 $0.24 0.49x 2026-11-11 09:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [xco5](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/xco5) $0.48 $0.44 0.91x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [❟❛❟Tɨօʐ0ʀ™❟❛❟](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9FT%C9%A8%D6%85%CA%900%CA%80%E2%84%A2%E2%9D%9F%E2%9D%9B%E2%9D%9F) $0.48 $0.22 0.45x 2026-11-11 04:01 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) [Willy\_predador](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Willy_predador) $0.48 $0.23 0.47x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [๋](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E0%B9%8B) $0.48 $0.43 0.91x 2026-11-10 19:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) [aokiッ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aoki%E3%83%83) $0.48 $0.57 1.19x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) [aokiッ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aoki%E3%83%83) $0.48 $0.62 1.29x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [aokiッ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aoki%E3%83%83) $0.48 $0.43 0.90x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [aokiッ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/aoki%E3%83%83) $0.48 $0.43 0.90x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.48 | 77.83% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.48 | 77.60% | 5 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.48 | 77.40% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.48 | 77.47% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.48 | 77.75% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.48 | 78.00% | 5 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.07% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.05% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.09% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.48 | 78.14% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.48 | 78.60% | 5 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.48 | 78.59% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.48 | 78.59% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.48 | 78.54% | 5 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.37% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.50% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.48% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.42% | 5 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.51% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.48 | 78.50% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.48 | 78.93% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.48 | 78.95% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.48 | 79.17% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.63% | 5 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.39% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.48 | 78.89% | 5 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.48 | 78.98% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #d32ce6 0.0% #8847ff 26.6% #4b69ff 73.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.83 on average: an expected loss of $22.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt