--- title: "Canals case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Canals ($6.79) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.25% from 17 items with odds, observed 286.01% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection rendered: 2026-11-11T19:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Canals](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection) # [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Canals A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection?window=all) Price · $6.79 Advertised RTP · 76.25% · EV $5.18 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 286.01% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min 53.5% 286.0% 518.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection?window=7d) | 1 | 286.01% ±231.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection) | 1 | 286.01% ±231.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecanalscollection?window=all) | 1 | 286.01% ±231.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 198,466 | $2,205 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 2,559 | $102 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,558 | $85.88 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 1,308 | $80.89 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $25.35 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $25.12 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $21.75 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $17.85 | 14.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 12.4% | $4.01 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-field-tested) | 11.7% | $3.58 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-well-worn) | 11.7% | $3.56 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 11.1% | $3.28 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Negev \| Boroque Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-boroque-sand-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $2.95 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $2.73 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Navy Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.09 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.84 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Pistols](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.70 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thecanalscollection) [SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) [SniG\_DP](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/SniG_DP) $6.79 $19.42 2.86x 2026-11-05 16:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $6.79 | 76.25% | 17 | | 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $6.79 | 76.02% | 17 | | 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.85% | 17 | | 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $6.79 | 75.84% | 17 | | 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.79 | 76.14% | 17 | | 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $6.79 | 76.48% | 17 | | 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.49% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.48% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.51% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $6.79 | 76.60% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $6.79 | 77.04% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 17 | | 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 17 | | 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.99% | 17 | | 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 17 | | 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.00% | 17 | | 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $6.79 | 77.02% | 17 | | 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $6.79 | 76.92% | 17 | | 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.05% | 17 | | 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $6.79 | 77.41% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $6.79 | 77.39% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.33% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.01% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.10% | 17 | | 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $6.79 | 77.12% | 17 | | 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.79 | 77.11% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% restricted 0.2% mil spec 8.9% #4b69ff 1.9% industrial 24.1% Industrial 11.7% Uncommon 11.1% consumer 20.2% #777777 8.0% Consumer Grade 7.2% Pistols 6.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.25 on average: an expected loss of $23.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt