---
title: "Control case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Control ($3.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.23% from 19 items with odds, observed 395.87% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Control](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Control

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection?window=all)

Price · $3.39

Advertised RTP · 76.23% · EV $2.58 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 395.87% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 4 openings · below min

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

76.0% 297.5% 519.0%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection?window=7d) | 4 | 395.87% ±122.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection) | 4 | 395.87% ±122.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thecontrolcollection?window=all) | 4 | 395.87% ±122.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 183,844 | $540 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 177,343 | $477 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 61,072 | $183 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 5,819 | $74.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,769 | $74.14 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,576 | $68.45 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $16.70 | 8.0% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $13.06 | 11.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $11.96 | 13.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $10.50 | 15.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 14.5% | $2.16 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-field-tested) | 13.0% | $1.75 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) | 12.8% | $1.71 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-minimal-wear) | 12.6% | $1.66 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.01 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.84 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Charter (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-charter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.81 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.81 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.77 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thecontrolcollection)

[SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-field-tested) [FS|B|](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/FS%7CB%7C) $3.39 $12.98 3.83x 2026-11-09 12:49 UTC

[P2000 | Dispatch (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-minimal-wear) [Jota](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Jota) $3.39 $11.12 3.28x 2026-11-08 02:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) [nonyamis](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/nonyamis) $3.39 $14.39 4.24x 2026-11-07 19:12 UTC

[M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) [g0\_0se](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/g0_0se) $3.39 $15.19 4.48x 2026-11-05 15:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.23% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $3.39 | 76.06% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.78% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $3.39 | 75.83% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $3.39 | 76.11% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $3.39 | 76.40% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.44% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.38% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.46% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $3.39 | 76.51% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $3.39 | 76.99% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $3.39 | 76.92% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $3.39 | 76.93% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.97% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.92% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $3.39 | 77.00% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.94% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $3.39 | 76.94% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $3.39 | 77.34% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $3.39 | 77.36% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.28% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $3.39 | 76.96% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.05% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $3.39 | 77.06% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.39 | 77.04% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% restricted 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% Rare 5.1% mil spec 2.3% Mil Spec Grade 2.9% Industrial Grade 27.5% uncommon 12.8% Uncommon 12.6% grey 22.5% gray 7.3% Common 7.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.23 on average: an expected loss of $23.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt