---
title: "The Genesis Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Genesis Collection ($1.39) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 73.72% from 9 items with odds, observed 82.10% over 149 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Genesis Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Genesis Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection?window=all)

Price · $1.39

Advertised RTP · 73.72% · EV $1.02 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.10% · 149 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 34.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 85.06% ±15.97 138 openings

30 days · 82.10% ±15.34 149 openings

since tracking started · 82.10% ±15.34 149 openings

19.0% 78.0% 137.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection?window=24h) | 11 | 78.02% ±58.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection?window=7d) | 138 | 85.06% ±16.0 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection) | 149 | 82.10% ±15.3 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thegenesiscollection?window=all) | 149 | 82.10% ±15.3 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 10,264 | $36.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 8,206 | $33.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $6.49 | 9.0% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.36× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $5.46 | 12.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $5.05 | 13.7% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.48× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 28.0% | $1.20 | 32.8% | 34 | 41.7 | 0.82× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 23.1% | $0.54 | 12.2% | 11 | 34.4 | 0.32× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) | 21.5% | $0.48 | 10.1% | 36 | 32.0 | 1.13× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-well-worn) | 21.0% | $0.47 | 9.5% | 2 | 31.2 | 0.06× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thegenesiscollection)

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $0.48 0.35x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $1.20 0.86x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $0.48 0.35x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $0.54 0.39x 2026-11-10 19:59 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $1.20 0.86x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $0.54 0.39x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $0.48 0.35x 2026-11-10 19:58 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [CraxiLt](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/CraxiLt) $1.39 $0.48 0.35x 2026-11-10 19:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $0.54 0.39x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-field-tested) [скрытопульный бл](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BF%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B1%D0%BB) $1.39 $0.48 0.35x 2026-11-10 19:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.39 | 73.72% | 9 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.60% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.45% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.39 | 73.78% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.39 | 74.20% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.09% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.06% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.04% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.39 | 74.25% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.39 | 74.76% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.39 | 74.72% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.68% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.65% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $1.39 | 74.74% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.80% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.79% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.81% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.57% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.56% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $1.39 | 74.56% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.67% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $1.39 | 75.03% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $1.39 | 74.97% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.95% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.63% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $1.39 | 74.69% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.39 | 74.59% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $1.39 | 74.65% | 10 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% pink 4.2% uncommon 2.3% restricted 28.0% violet 44.6% common 21.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.72 on average: an expected loss of $26.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt