---
title: "The Harlequin Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Harlequin Collection ($0.80) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 78.70% from 19 items with odds, observed 120.56% over 787 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Harlequin Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Harlequin Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection?window=all)

Price · $0.80

Advertised RTP · 78.70% · EV $0.63 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 120.56% · 787 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 40.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 124.44% ±8.46 588 openings

30 days · 120.56% ±7.33 787 openings

since tracking started · 120.56% ±7.33 787 openings

63.5% 122.5% 181.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 79.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (113.24% – 127.89%, 787 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection?window=24h) | 12 | 122.51% ±58.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection?window=7d) | 588 | 124.44% ±8.46 | +10.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection) | 787 | 120.56% ±7.33 | +11.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theharlequincollection?window=all) | 787 | 120.56% ±7.33 | +11.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 787 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $7.26 | 5.8% | 12 | 4.0 | 3.02× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $2.32 | 35.3% | 107 | 75.5 | 1.42× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 30.3% | $0.96 | 46.1% | 381 | 238.2 | 1.60× |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-field-tested) | 13.1% | $0.17 | 3.7% | 90 | 103.4 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-field-tested) | 13.1% | $0.17 | 3.7% | 61 | 103.4 | 0.59× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) | 11.1% | $0.14 | 2.5% | 63 | 87.1 | 0.72× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.14 | 2.5% | 72 | 85.9 | 0.84× |
| [XM1014 \| XoooM (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xooom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 20.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-calligrafaux-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 17.2 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-coral-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 9.5 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 8.2 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-crimson-batik-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Safari Print (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-safari-print-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-mauve-aside-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-thermal-currents-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bee-tron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 220 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Byproduct (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-byproduct-minimal-wear) | 1 in 249 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 249 | \<$0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=theharlequincollection)

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) [I9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/I9) $0.80 $0.16 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) [HypE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/HypE) $0.80 $2.31 2.89x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [Furgonzil](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Furgonzil) $0.80 $0.14 0.18x 2026-11-10 23:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $0.14 0.18x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $0.95 1.19x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $0.95 1.19x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $0.95 1.19x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $2.35 2.94x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $0.95 1.19x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) [✁ barba ✁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%9C%81%20barba%20%E2%9C%81) $0.80 $0.95 1.19x 2026-11-10 21:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.80 | 78.70% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.80 | 78.28% | 19 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.80 | 78.09% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.80 | 78.11% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.80 | 78.65% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.80 | 79.09% | 19 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.80 | 79.11% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.80% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.97% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.80 | 78.89% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.80 | 79.58% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.80 | 79.47% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.80 | 79.53% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.80 | 79.52% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.80 | 79.49% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.80 | 79.33% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.69% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.57% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.28% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.22% | 19 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.42% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.80 | 79.38% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.49% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.80 | 79.79% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.80 | 79.80% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.71% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.58% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.59% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.80 | 79.61% | 19 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.80 | 79.55% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 0.5% restricted 9.6% #8847ff 30.3% #4b69ff 37.4% blue 10.9% #5e98d9 2.6% Uncommon 3.4% industrial 1.2% light blue 1.0% grey 0.5% #b0c3d9 2.2% consumer 0.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.70 on average: an expected loss of $21.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt