---
title: "Вещий ворон case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Вещий ворон ($0.40) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.33% from 30 items with odds, observed 97.45% over 25.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Вещий ворон](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Вещий ворон

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 77.33% · EV $0.31 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.45% · 25.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.72% ±3.91 1,591 openings

7 days · 97.89% ±1.14 18.5K openings

30 days · 97.45% ±0.98 25.2K openings

since tracking started · 97.45% ±0.98 25.2K openings

76.5% 91.0% 105.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 78.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.47% – 98.43%, 25,246 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven?window=24h) | 1,591 | 100.72% ±3.91 | +11.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven?window=7d) | 18.5K | 97.89% ±1.14 | +34.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven) | 25.2K | 97.45% ±0.98 | +38.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepropheticraven?window=all) | 25.2K | 97.45% ±0.98 | +38.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,717 | $12.14 | 0.4% | 7 | 2.6 | 2.69× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 9,674 | $11.56 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 9,531 | $10.19 | 0.3% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 9,268 | $8.71 | 0.3% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 9,046 | $7.90 | 0.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,349 | $6.41 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,183 | $5.10 | 0.2% | 7 | 3.5 | 1.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 5,244 | $3.85 | 0.2% | 13 | 4.8 | 2.69× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,795 | $2.72 | 0.3% | 16 | 9.1 | 1.77× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,948 | $2.32 | 0.4% | 20 | 13.0 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 1,284 | $1.96 | 0.5% | 34 | 19.7 | 1.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 1,227 | $1.93 | 0.5% | 6 | 20.6 | 0.29× |
| [Charm \| Magmatude charm · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-magmatude) | 1 in 1,008 | $1.79 | 0.6% | 68 | 25.1 | 2.71× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-well-worn) | 1 in 443 | $1.32 | 1.0% | 10 | 57.1 | 0.18× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 326 | $1.19 | 1.2% | 49 | 77.7 | 0.63× |
| [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-field-tested) | 1 in 302 | $1.15 | 1.2% | 0 | 83.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $1.02 | 1.5% | 207 | 117.7 | 1.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $0.82 | 2.3% | 396 | 220.8 | 1.79× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $0.79 | 2.4% | 24 | 240.8 | 0.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $0.68 | 3.1% | 1,153 | 360.5 | 3.20× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 58 | $0.63 | 3.5% | 880 | 437.3 | 2.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.56 | 4.4% | 1,151 | 617.2 | 1.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.40 | 7.0% | 2,056 | 1361.5 | 1.51× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.37 | 7.7% | 2,153 | 1651.2 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.34 | 8.3% | 668 | 1890.5 | 0.35× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.34 | 8.3% | 2,651 | 1889.2 | 1.40× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) | 11.4% | $0.28 | 10.1% | 2,691 | 2885.6 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-well-worn) | 14.6% | $0.23 | 11.1% | 2,396 | 3703.7 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 15.4% | $0.23 | 11.2% | 3,850 | 3885.8 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 22.6% | $0.15 | 10.8% | 0 | 5709.5 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thepropheticraven)

[Galil AR | Signal (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-field-tested) [ООО"Тсос"](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%9E%D0%9E%D0%9E%26quot%3B%D0%A2%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%81%26quot%3B) $0.40 $0.55 1.38x 2026-11-11 20:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [Kapibara](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kapibara) $0.40 $0.41 1.03x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) [Kapibara](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Kapibara) $0.40 $0.28 0.71x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) [𝕯𝖆𝖓𝖞𝖝\_𝟎𝟖](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%95%AF%F0%9D%96%86%F0%9D%96%93%F0%9D%96%9E%F0%9D%96%9D_%F0%9D%9F%8E%F0%9D%9F%96) $0.40 $0.31 0.77x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [Speaad||Reall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Speaad%7C%7CReall) $0.40 $0.41 1.03x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) [Speaad||Reall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Speaad%7C%7CReall) $0.40 $0.31 0.77x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) [Speaad||Reall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Speaad%7C%7CReall) $0.40 $0.25 0.62x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [Speaad||Reall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Speaad%7C%7CReall) $0.40 $1.03 2.57x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Zen charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-zen) [Speaad||Reall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Speaad%7C%7CReall) $0.40 $0.27 0.67x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

[USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) [Speaad||Reall](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Speaad%7C%7CReall) $0.40 $0.28 0.71x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.40 | 77.33% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.40 | 77.03% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.92% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.40 | 76.94% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.40 | 77.24% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.40 | 77.51% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.60% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.55% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.62% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.40 | 77.61% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.40 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.40 | 77.99% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.40 | 78.02% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.08% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.06% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.40 | 78.09% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.08% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.01% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.00% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.04% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.12% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.40 | 78.11% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.19% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.40 | 78.52% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.40 | 78.48% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.39% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.21% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.25% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.40 | 78.27% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.40 | 78.25% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 22.6% classified 0.0% restricted 10.3% violet 8.2% pink 0.0% mil spec 15.4% Mythical 1.4% #4b69ff 11.4% Rare 0.1% Restricted 0.2% uncommon 1.7% #8847ff 6.5% blue 7.5% Mil Spec Grade 14.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.33 on average: an expected loss of $22.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt