---
title: "Король тыкв case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Король тыкв ($53.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 76.63% from 28 items with odds, observed 78.24% over 4,379 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [Король тыкв](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · Король тыкв

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking?window=all)

Price · $53.99

Advertised RTP · 76.63% · EV $41.37 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.24% · 4,379 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.85% ±5.04 896 openings

7 days · 78.43% ±2.54 3,777 openings

30 days · 78.24% ±2.37 4,379 openings

since tracking started · 78.24% ±2.37 4,379 openings

72.0% 77.8% 83.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking?window=24h) | 896 | 77.85% ±5.04 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking?window=7d) | 3,777 | 78.43% ±2.54 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking) | 4,379 | 78.24% ±2.37 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thepumpkinking?window=all) | 4,379 | 78.24% ±2.37 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,381 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,778 | $1,885 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,672 | $1,650 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,110 | $1,159 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 9,089 | $1,149 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,733 | $1,016 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 5,605 | $578 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,487 | $569 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 4,784 | $518 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,557 | $502 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,266 | $353 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.55× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 1,208 | $273 | 0.5% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 553 | $204 | 0.9% | 5 | 7.9 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 517 | $199 | 0.9% | 19 | 8.5 | 2.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $120 | 2.3% | 29 | 34.2 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $110 | 2.6% | 12 | 43.2 | 0.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $108 | 2.7% | 30 | 45.1 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $93.88 | 3.4% | 62 | 65.2 | 0.95× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $77.97 | 4.5% | 92 | 103.6 | 0.89× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $77.59 | 4.5% | 47 | 104.8 | 0.45× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $60.93 | 6.1% | 175 | 181.6 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $53.04 | 7.0% | 259 | 240.7 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $38.24 | 8.7% | 370 | 412.9 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 10.1% | $36.29 | 8.8% | 430 | 442.0 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 10.5% | $35.04 | 8.9% | 471 | 461.1 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $32.43 | 9.0% | 489 | 502.2 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 12.2% | $30.45 | 9.0% | 444 | 533.4 | 0.83× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 12.5% | $29.56 | 8.9% | 482 | 547.4 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 14.5% | $23.00 | 8.1% | 655 | 635.8 | 1.03× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [inho](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/inho) $53.99 $1,668 30.90x 2026-11-06 18:43 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) [𝓚𝓪𝓙𝓵𝓾𝓫𝓹𝓾](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%F0%9D%93%9A%F0%9D%93%AA%F0%9D%93%99%F0%9D%93%B5%F0%9D%93%BE%F0%9D%93%AB%F0%9D%93%B9%F0%9D%93%BE) $53.99 $1,149 21.28x 2026-11-10 16:01 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) [rina](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/rina) $53.99 $583 10.80x 2026-11-10 15:07 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/777) $53.99 $575 10.65x 2026-11-07 01:30 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [VEM PRA twitch.tv/jpndub](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/VEM%20PRA%20twitch.tv%2Fjpndub) $53.99 $505 9.35x 2026-11-04 01:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thepumpkinking)

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $53.99 $30.22 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $53.99 $23.81 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $53.99 $60.32 1.12x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $53.99 $77.17 1.43x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $53.99 $30.22 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) [Methew J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/Methew%20J) $53.99 $35.80 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [STJ Begashaa9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/STJ%20Begashaa9) $53.99 $39.88 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) [STJ Begashaa9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/STJ%20Begashaa9) $53.99 $39.88 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) [STJ Begashaa9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/STJ%20Begashaa9) $53.99 $29.57 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) [RK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/RK) $53.99 $31.93 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $53.99 | 76.63% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.45% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.43% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.73% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $53.99 | 77.06% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.05% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.12% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.18% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $53.99 | 77.58% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.60% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.54% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.67% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $53.99 | 78.02% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $53.99 | 78.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.94% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $53.99 | 77.72% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $53.99 | 77.68% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 53.1% extraordinary 0.1% epic 0.2% red 20.6% Ancient 11.5% classified 14.5% best hit $1,668 (30.90x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.63 on average: an expected loss of $23.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt