---
title: "The Radiant Collection case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Radiant Collection ($0.67) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 78.06% from 14 items with odds, observed 116.40% over 215 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [The Radiant Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · The Radiant Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection?window=all)

Price · $0.67

Advertised RTP · 78.06% · EV $0.52 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 116.40% · 215 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 39.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 98 openings · below min

30 days · 116.40% ±11.02 215 openings

since tracking started · 116.40% ±11.02 215 openings

-0.5% 77.3% 155.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 79.05% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.39% – 127.42%, 215 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection?window=24h) | 3 | 61.04% ±93.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection?window=7d) | 98 | 130.32% ±16.3 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection) | 215 | 116.40% ±11.0 | +6.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/theradiantcollection?window=all) | 215 | 116.40% ±11.0 | +6.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 215 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 414 | $7.90 | 3.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 19.1% | $1.04 | 37.9% | 38 | 41.0 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 20.1% | $0.96 | 36.8% | 44 | 43.1 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-minimal-wear) | 16.2% | $0.34 | 10.7% | 22 | 34.9 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.18 | 3.2% | 12 | 20.3 | 0.59× |
| [P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 7 | 15.9 | 0.44× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.14 | 2.0% | 8 | 16.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.13 | 1.8% | 9 | 15.5 | 0.58× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.13 | 1.6% | 5 | 14.7 | 0.34× |
| [Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-citric-acid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 4.0 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $0.02 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $0.02 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Grey Ghost (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-grey-ghost-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=theradiantcollection)

[SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blush-pour-field-tested) [ЧИЧА Сыроежкин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%D0%A7%D0%98%D0%A7%D0%90%20%D0%A1%D1%8B%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD) $0.67 $0.13 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:00 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [TrackL1ght](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/TrackL1ght) $0.67 $0.97 1.45x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-tide-field-tested) [☯RV666☯](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/%E2%98%AFRV666%E2%98%AF) $0.67 $0.13 0.20x 2026-11-11 00:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [UnLuck ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UnLuck%20%E2%99%BF) $0.67 $1.04 1.55x 2026-11-10 18:47 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [UnLuck ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UnLuck%20%E2%99%BF) $0.67 $0.98 1.46x 2026-11-10 18:47 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [UnLuck ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UnLuck%20%E2%99%BF) $0.67 $0.98 1.46x 2026-11-10 18:47 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [UnLuck ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/UnLuck%20%E2%99%BF) $0.67 $0.98 1.46x 2026-11-10 18:47 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) [BERO SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/BERO%20SKINS) $0.67 $0.28 0.41x 2026-11-10 15:35 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) [IIoe3D\_v\_IIyKaH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/IIoe3D_v_IIyKaH) $0.67 $0.99 1.48x 2026-11-10 13:55 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) [DеnDич](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgo-net/D%D0%B5nD%D0%B8%D1%87) $0.67 $0.28 0.41x 2026-11-10 10:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 78.06% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 77.99% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.65% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.64% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 77.65% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 78.17% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.14% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.22% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.35% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 78.44% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 78.66% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 78.79% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 78.62% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.78% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.68% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 78.61% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.87% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.64% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.60% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.84% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.81% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 78.73% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.68% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 79.29% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 79.23% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 79.07% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.71% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.91% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 78.69% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 78.87% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.2% violet 19.1% Mythical 20.1% blue 37.9% common 9.4% Rare 7.2% Uncommon 3.6% light blue 1.3% #5e98d9 1.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 78.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $78.06 on average: an expected loss of $21.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt