---
title: "St. Marc case on csgo.net: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "St. Marc ($10.99) on csgo.net, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 75.22% from 15 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) / [St. Marc](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection)

# [csgo.net](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgo-net) · St. Marc

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 75.22% · EV $8.27 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 96.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgo-net/thestmarccollection?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 8,888 | $253 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-field-tested) | 1 in 7,700 | $240 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 390 | $86.20 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $63.91 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $53.94 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $47.68 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-field-tested) | 14.7% | $10.22 | 18.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 14.8% | $9.05 | 16.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 14.8% | $8.77 | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Rust Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rust-leaf-field-tested) | 14.8% | $8.69 | 15.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Jungle Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-jungle-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.95 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.80 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Seabird (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-seabird-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.69 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Bamboo Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-bamboo-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.64 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $2.60 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgo-net:pf_case_ranges`, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgo-net&case=thestmarccollection)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $10.99 | 75.22% | 15 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.04% | 15 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.03% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $10.99 | 75.31% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $10.99 | 75.63% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.65% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.62% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.70% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $10.99 | 75.74% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.14% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $10.99 | 76.18% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.21% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.17% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.16% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $10.99 | 76.10% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $10.99 | 76.21% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $10.99 | 76.58% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $10.99 | 76.28% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $10.99 | 76.25% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 08:09 UTC | $10.99 | 76.33% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 07:05 UTC | $10.99 | 76.43% | 15 |
| 4 Nov, 05:18 UTC | $10.99 | 76.42% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 23:08 UTC | $10.99 | 76.42% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $10.99 | 76.55% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 0.0% mil spec 0.3% Mil Spec Grade 0.6% other 0.9% milspec 1.3% industrial 44.4% Uncommon 14.8% Consumer Grade 8.0% consumer 29.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.22 on average: an expected loss of $24.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt